Free NFL Week 10 Pick: Broncos vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL Week 10 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Broncos taking on the Bills on Monday, November 13th at the Highmark Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 10 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Denver Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 10
(3-5) Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Monday Night Football on ESPN
Date: Monday, November 13th
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL Week 10 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Denver +7.5 | Buffalo -7.5
Week 10 NFL Moneyline Odds: Denver +285 | Buffalo -374
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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I know the Broncos beat the Chiefs last game out, but that was their Super Bowl. This isn’t a good team, and they’re not fooling me!
The Bills know their season lies in the balance. They have to win this game, Denver doesn’t. The will to win is huge, and Buffalo’s is going to show itself on Sunday.
If you want my honest opinion, I’m of the opinion this game should be flexed to something else. I feel bad for the national TV audience that they have to be subject to this terrible Broncos team. But, I digress.
Last season, the Broncos and Bills did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Bills have the leg up at 3-0.
The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0.
These games averaged a combined total of 43 points per game leading to an over/under record of 2-1.
The Broncos and Bills have faced off 40 times (plus 1 playoff match). Denver has won 16 games, Buffalo has won 23, and they tied once.
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This season, the Broncos hold the 4th position in the AFC-West with an overall record of 3-5. In non-conference games, they have a record of 2-1, and in AFC action, they are 1-4.
Against the spread, the Broncos are 2-5-1 this season. This includes them covering the spread in two straight games at home.
Against the Chiefs, the Broncos held a five-point lead going into the 4th. The Broncos’ offense finished with 153 yards on an average of 3.8 yards per attempt.
Defensively, they have up a total of 274 yards to the Chiefs. Denver went into the game as the underdog (+7), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Russell Wilson threw for 114 yards while completing 63% of his passes and throwing for 114.
Wilson threw for three touchdowns, to just frustrate his fantasy football owners who benched him. (If he’s owned at all! LOL)
Denver Broncos Stats
On offense, the Broncos finished with 240 yards against the Chiefs. On third-down situations, the Broncos had a 42.9% conversion rate.
Notably, Javonte Williams led the rushing attack with 85 yards, while Russell Wilson passed for 114 yards.
With an average of 21.5 points per contest, the Denver offense currently ranks 16th in the league.
The Broncos currently rank 14th in tackles for loss and 14th in sacks on the defensive side. Their opponents are averaging 28.2 points per game and 405.9 yards per contest against them.
This season, the Bills hold the 2nd position in the AFC-East with an overall record of 5-4. In non-conference games, they have a record of 3-0, and in AFC action, they are 2-4.
Thus far this season, the Bills hold a record above .500 against the spread, marked at 3-6. Their average scoring margin in the current season is +8.9.
Defensively, the Bills gave up 397 yards of total offense to the Bengals in a 24-18 loss.
The Bengals ran the ball for 54 yards while throwing for 343. On offense, the Bills went 7/12 on 3rd down and finished with 317 yards of total offense. Buffalo’s 6 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 1.5 point underdogs.
Quarterback Josh Allen led the Bills in both rushing and passing, with 44 yards on the ground and 258 through air. Allen ran for one score and threw for one touchdown.
I don’t think week’s gameplan should have Allen leading the team in rushing. They won’t need him to, that’s for certain.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Offensively, Allen finished with 258 passing yards while completing 68% of his passes. On the ground, the Bills rushed the ball 16 times for 68 yards. The team converted 7 of 12 third-down opportunities.
Coming into week 10, the Bills offense is 5th in the league at 26.7 points per contest.
Buffalo is sitting 5th in points allowed so far. Heading into week 10, their opponents are putting up an average of 17.8 points per game, on 334.0 yards per contest.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Broncos are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Broncos are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Broncos’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Broncos vs. Bills Line Movement
4* Free Week 10 NFL Betting Prediction: Buffalo -7.5 | OVER 46.5
It’s Monday Night Football, and we get this dumpster fire of a football game. This one will get ugly. Denver will be exposed. It won’t be close.
Denver are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games, and are 5-12 SU in their last 17. Buffalo are 16-3 SU in their last 19 at home, and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. Denver.
Expect Buffalo’s passing offense to deliver another strong performance, building on their recent success against Cincinnati. Being favored by 7.5 at home, I’m leaning towards Buffalo to cover.
I’m selecting the OVER as my pick, given the over/under line of 46.5. Heading into this matchup, games featuring Buffalo have had an average combined score of 44.4 points, but in this matchup they could get that themselves, and I believe this game will sail OVER the posted total.
I’m expecting a ton of points as the total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo’s last 10 games against Denver, and the total has sailed OVER in 9 of Denver’s last 13.
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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Get the inside scoop (Bills Mafia)
Back in front of Bills Mafia for MNF.
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 8, 2023
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