Free NFL Week 6 Pick: Bills vs. Jets Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Jets on Monday, October 14th at the MetLife Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 6 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo New York matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 6
(3-2) Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (2-3)
Date: Monday, October 14th
Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford NJ
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Buffalo -2.5 | New York +2.5
NFL Moneyline Odds: Buffalo -144 | New York +121
NFL Betting Total: O/U 41
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Each team won on the road in the two meetings between the Bills and Jets last season, with the Jets taking the first game 22-16 and the Bills winning the second game 32-6. Buffalo was favored by -2.5 in the first game and -8 in the second game. The over/under line for the first game was 44.5 points, and the teams combined for 38 points. In the second game, the over/under line was 39 points, and the teams again combined for 38 points.
Buffalo Bills
Despite two straight losses, the Bills remain atop the AFC East with a 3-2 record. After a dominant 37-point win over the Jaguars in week 3, Buffalo has dropped two in a row, including a 23-20 loss to the Texans in week 5. The Bills were 1.5-point underdogs in that game and couldn’t pull off the win, leaving them 1-2 on the road this season. However, they still have a 71.2% chance of winning the division and an 88.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.
Heading into week 6, Buffalo ranks 5th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +7.2 scoring margin and are 2-3 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 2-3, with the under hitting in their last two games.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Josh Allen has struggled since his 263-yard, 4-touchdown performance in week 3 against the Jaguars. In week 5, he completed just 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 56. Buffalo’s offense has also struggled on 3rd down, converting only 3 of 14 attempts in week 5, and they rank 22nd in the NFL with a 32.1% conversion rate.
Despite these struggles, the Bills are 5th in our offensive power rankings and 3rd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.4 points per game. They are 20th in passing yards per game (181.6) and 14th in rushing, averaging 118.2 yards per game on the ground.
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In their 23-20 loss to the Texans, the Bills’ defense gave up 331 passing yards and allowed Houston to complete 73.7% of their passes. Buffalo defended 28 rushing attempts and held the Texans to 94 yards on the ground. Despite this, the Bills allowed 425 total yards and struggled to get off the field, as Houston converted on 50% of their third down attempts.
Buffalo’s defense managed just one sack and forced one interception in the game. The Texans did find some success through the air, averaging 8.7 yards per passing attempt and scoring one passing touchdown.
New York Jets
After a week 3 win over the Patriots, the Jets have now dropped two straight, including a 23-17 loss to the Vikings in week 5. New York was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, and the 40 combined points fell short of the 42-point line. The Jets also lost to the Broncos in week 4, failing to cover as 8-point favorites.
Heading into week 6, the Jets rank 13th in our power rankings and have a 57.7% chance of making the playoffs. They are 2-3 against the spread and have an average scoring margin of +1.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 1-3-1, with the under hitting in three straight games.
New York Jets Stats
Heading into week 6, the Jets rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.6, and 25th in yards per game with 286.6. Despite ranking 3rd in passing attempts, they are 18th in passing yards per game, averaging 206.2. On the ground, they rank 32nd in rushing yards per game, with 80.4, on 22.6 attempts per game.
In week 5, Aaron Rodgers threw for 244 yards, with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, completing 29 of 54 passes. Garrett Wilson led the team with 13 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown, while Breece Hall had 23 rushing yards on 9 carries. The Jets converted 5 of 17 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips against the Vikings.
In their 23-17 loss to the Vikings, the Jets’ defense held Minnesota to just 82 yards on 30 rushing attempts, averaging 2.7 yards per attempt. The Jets’ defense also limited the Vikings to 171 passing yards and a 46.9% completion rate. They didn’t allow any passing touchdowns and forced one interception. Additionally, the Jets’ defense recorded four sacks in the game.
Even though the Jets’ defense played well, their offense couldn’t capitalize, as they lost the game despite allowing just 253 total yards to the Vikings. On third downs, the Jets held the Vikings to a 30.8% conversion rate.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bills are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Bills are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Jets have gone 3-6-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bills’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 0-3.
- The Jets’ have an over/under record of 1-1-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Bills vs. Jets Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -105 | -143 | +1 | -2.5 |
| Jets | -115 | +120 | -1 | +2.5 |
4* Free Week 6 NFL Betting Prediction: New York +2.5
Our model has the Jets coming out on top by a score of 35-30 in their week six matchup against the Bills. With the point spread sitting at -2.5 in favor of the Bills, we like the Jets to not only win but also cover as home underdogs.
For this game, we have a strong lean towards taking the over, with a projected combined score of 65 points and the O/U line currently sitting at 41 points.
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