Free NFL Week 18 Pick: Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
Looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins free NFL Week 18 season picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Bills taking on the Dolphins on Sunday, January 7th at the Hard Rock Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 18 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Buffalo Miami matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 18
(10-6) Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Date: Sunday, January 7th
Time: 8:20 ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens FL
NFL Week 18 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Buffalo -3 | Miami +3
Week 18 NFL Moneyline Odds: Buffalo -163 | Miami +135
NFL Betting Total: O/U 50
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In terms of the spread, the Bills have posted a 6-10 record, while the Dolphins have excelled with a 10-6 ATS performance. Looking at their overall series history, the Dolphins hold a slight lead at 62-57-1.
We’re in for an exciting Sunday night showdown. Buffalo (10-6) finished strong with four consecutive wins, while the Dolphins (11-5) have had a more mixed performance in their last four games.
The Bills hold the tiebreaker thanks to their dominant 48-20 home victory against Miami in Week 4.
In their most recent clash, the Bills dominated with a commanding 48-20 victory in Orchard Park, New York, on October 1, 2023.
Last week’s outcomes varied as the Bills secured a hard-fought 27-21 win against the Pats, while the Fins faced a tough loss on the road, falling 56-19 to the Ravens.
The Bills came out on top with a 48-20 win in their initial matchup against Dolphins. Looking at the spread, the Bills were favored by -3 and covered with their 28 point win.
Before the game, the over/under line was set at 52.5 points, a mark that the teams exceeded.
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Buffalo Bills
As they approach their game with the Dolphins, the Bills come int with an overall record of 10-6 and have a winning streak of four games. In the AFC-East, Buffalo currently stands at 2nd.
The Bills currently hold a 6-10 record against the spread. Currently, their average scoring margin is +8.3.
In the Bills’ 27-21 win over the Patriots, the Bills got off to a strong start, putting up 13 first quarter points. Offensively, they finished with 281 of total offense compared to the Patriots at 294.
Even though Buffalo won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 14.5 point favorites.
Even though Josh Allen did not throw for a touchdown, he ran for two scores and threw for 169 yards on 30 attempts.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Offensively, Allen ended with 169 passing yards with a completion rate of 50%. The Bills ran the ball 37 times, gaining 127 yards. The team converted 7 of 15 third-down opportunities.
So far this season, the Buffalo offense has been averaging 26.9 points per game, ranking them 5th in the league.
The Bills currently rank 9th in tackles for loss and 3rd in sacks on the defensive side. Their opponents are averaging 18.6 points per game and 309.2 yards per contest against them.
Miami Dolphins
So far this season, the Dolphins are 11-5 overall which has the team placed 1st in the AFC-East. This record has come while going 1-3 as the underdog and 10-2 when favored.
The Dolphins currently hold a 10-6 record against the spread. Currently, their average scoring margin is +7.
The Dolphins had a strong offensive start, scoring 10 points in the first quarter. They ended the game with a total of 375 yards, while the Ravens managed 491 yards. Miami’s 37 point loss also resulted in a loss vs. the spread as 3 point underdogs.
Tua Tagovailoa threw for 237 yards while completing 57% of his passes and throwing for 237.
Tagovailoa threw for two touchdowns.
Miami Dolphins Stats
On offense, the Dolphins finished with 375 yards against the Ravens. On third-down situations, the Dolphins had a 40% conversion rate. Notably, De’Von Achane led the rushing attack with 107 yards, while Tua passed for 237 yards.
As they enter week 18, the Dolphins offense ranks 1st in the league, averaging 30.1 points per contest.
On the defensive front, the Dolphins currently hold the 13th position in tackles for loss and rank 3rd in sacks. Opponents are averaging 23.1 points and 308.6 yards per game against them.
The Dolphins secured a playoff berth with their 22-20 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while the Bills still need to secure their spot.
Consequently, there’s a scenario where the Dolphins, by winning on Sunday night, could potentially eliminate the Bills from playoff contention.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Bills are 2-3 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Dolphins are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Bills are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Dolphins have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Bills’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Dolphins’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Bills vs. Dolphins Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Bills | +104 | -163 | +1.5 | -3 |
Dolphins | -122 | +135 | -1.5 | +3 |
4* Free Week 18 NFL Betting Prediction: Miami +3
The Bills face a make-or-break moment this week. The Dolphins have a chance for an upset. 100%.
Depending on the Steelers, Jaguars, and Texans-Colts game outcomes, it’s do-or-die for the Bills on Sunday night in Miami. A win secures the AFC East title and #2 seed, but a loss eliminates them.
I expect Miami to continue their impressive rushing game, as seen in their recent matchup with Baltimore. I’ll be getting a bet down on Miami before the game starts.
My point spread pick is Miami as 3-point underdogs.
After crunching the numbers, our model is pointing to this game finishing with a combined 53 points.
This projection has me feeling good about taking the over at 50.
Despite dealing with numerous injuries, the Dolphins remain a formidable force on their home turf. I think they can get this done.
Bills Dolphins NFL Handicapping
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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Dolfans are the real MVPs. 🐬👏 pic.twitter.com/voFPOkWmfz
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) January 5, 2024
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