Free NCAAB Pick: Midshipmen vs. Tar Heels Odds
Looking for Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAB betting sees the Midshipmen taking on the Tar Heels on 11/18 at Dean E. Smith Center, in North Carolina. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAB predictions like this Midshipmen Tar Heels free pick.
2025 NCAAB Handicapping – Navy Midshipmen vs North Carolina Tar Heels
(2-2) Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0)
Date: Nov 18, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center in North Carolina, NC
NCAAB Moneyline Odds: Midshipmen +3000 | Tar Heels -10000 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAB Spread Betting Odds: Midshipmen +25.5 | Tar Heels -25.5
NCAAB Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 161.5
Here’s why I’m backing a NAVY ATS bet below in my Midshipmen Tar Heels free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Midshipmen vs. Tar Heels Gameday
Tonight, the Navy Midshipmen travel to Chapel Hill to take on the No. 18 North Carolina Tar Heels at the Dean E. Smith Center. This non-conference matchup pits Navy’s disciplined Patriot League style against UNC’s ACC firepower on ACCN at 7:00 PM ET.
This is one of those classic “styles make fights” games where pace, talent, and composure are all going to collide.
Meanwhile, Navy enters at 2-2 and is coming off a 33-point blowout win over Washington College. Their away mark sits at 1-1, and they’ll need their cleanest game of the season to stay competitive in this environment. North Carolina, on the other hand, stands at a pristine 4-0 and has dominated all four home games so far.
Additionally, UNC crushed North Carolina Central by 44 points in their most recent outing behind a monster performance from Caleb Wilson. With UNC’s roster depth showing early-season polish, Navy faces a steep challenge.
Oddsmakers agree, setting UNC as a 25.5-point favorite with a total of 161.5 — signaling an expected high-tempo, high-scoring affair.
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It’s Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels — and hopefully the Midshipmen can make this interesting.
Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Odds & Last 5
To start, the betting odds heavily favor North Carolina, with the Tar Heels sitting at -10000 on the moneyline. Navy is listed at +3000, reflecting just how difficult this matchup is projected to be.
Looking back, Navy’s last performance was a strong 97-point showing led by Aidan Kehoe’s 20-point night. However, their earlier nine-point loss to Penn State is a reminder of the challenges they face against high-major opponents.
Meanwhile, UNC has been flawless, winning every game in their last five and looking sharper with each outing.
Caleb Wilson dropped 21 points in their latest victory, and the Heels’ home dominance only strengthens their status as heavy favorites.
We want to hear from you below! Comments are welcome! Give us your picks for this Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAB matchup.
Tar Heels Stats
To begin, UNC is scoring at a high clip, averaging 91.8 points per game — 46th nationally. Their pace sits at 73.4 possessions per game, ranking 38th and helping fuel their offense.
Caleb Wilson has been the standout performer so far, posting 21 points and 13 boards against North Carolina Central. Through four games, he has totaled 80 points and 38 rebounds, establishing himself as their early-season focal point.
Additionally, UNC’s dominance on the glass stands out. Their 47.5 rebounds per game rank 16th in the nation, giving them major second-chance opportunities.
Defensively, though, there are areas needing attention. They sit 356th in steals per game at 7.5 and 516th in blocks with just 5.8 per contest.
Cleaning up those weaknesses will be important against stronger competition.
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Midshipmen Stats
To begin with, Navy averages 78 points per game, ranking 222nd nationally. Their pace is methodical at 60.1 possessions per game (291st), which plays into their controlled, half-court identity.
However, their 50.5% shooting mark ranks 49th and shows real offensive efficiency when they execute.
In terms of recent results, they posted a dominant 97-point outing against Washington College. Yet losses to Penn State and Yale highlight their inconsistency against stronger foes.
Individually, Donovan Draper has delivered big performances, including 22 points and 12 rebounds against Penn State. Aidan Kehoe added a 20-point game on 76.9% shooting in their latest win, giving Navy two reliable scoring options.
Finally, Navy’s defense needs improvement, as they sit at just 2 blocks per game (222nd). Their 17.5 fouls per game (331st) could also become problematic against UNC’s high-octane attack.
Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels bottom line: North Carolina’s pace and size should create too many matchup problems for Navy to weather for 40 minutes.
NCAA Stats
| Stat | Navy | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 78.0 (222nd) | 91.8 (46th) |
| FG % | 50.5 (49th) | 48.6 (94th) |
| 3 Point FG% | 35.9 (112th) | 32.2 (223rd) |
| 3 Point Attempts | 16.0 (355th) | 28.8 (69th) |
Navy Midshipmen vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Betting Trends
- The Tar Heels are 4-0 straight up in their last 10 games.
- As favorites, the Tar Heels are 3-0 straight up.
- In the last 5 games, the Tar Heels are 3-1 against the spread.
- Also, the Tar Heels are 2-1 against the spread as favorites.
- In terms of totals, the Tar Heels have gone over in 2 of their last 3 games.
- Additionally, the Tar Heels have a 50% over/under record in all games.
Midshipmen Tar Heels Free Pick: Navy +25.5
Here is my Tar Heels Midshipmen free pick. To start, North Carolina has been solid straight up, but covering a 25.5-point number is a whole different animal. Even with a recent 3-1 run against the spread, this is a big ask against a Navy team that scores about 78 points per game.
Navy’s offense is capable enough to keep trading buckets, especially if the Tar Heels coast for stretches. Because North Carolina has been giving up around 91.8 points per night, this doesn’t profile like a complete defensive stranglehold.
With a huge spread and a live underdog that can score and shoot free throws, taking the points makes a lot of sense.
On top of that, Navy’s overall field goal efficiency gives them a real chance to hang around inside the number if they execute in the half court. They don’t need to win the game; they just need to avoid those long scoring droughts that turn it into a blowout.
Also, the Midshipmen’s 75.5% clip at the free throw line quietly matters in a spread this large. If they get to the stripe consistently, they can keep chipping away and make any late run from North Carolina less damaging to the ticket.
Considering all of that, I’d rather grab the boatload of points than lay them. My play is Navy +25.5.
Today’s NCAAB Free Pick
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NCAAB Betting Tweet Of The Day
It’s GAMEDAY.
🆚 Navy
📍 Chapel Hill, NC
🕖 7 PM ET
📺 ACC Network
🎟️ https://t.co/a1rss5fe6i pic.twitter.com/mflMTvIRtU— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) November 18, 2025
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