Free Pick: Thunder vs. Lakers Odds
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2026 NBA Playoffs Handicapping – OKC Thunder vs LA Lakers
(2-0) OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers (0-2)
Date: May 9, 2025
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
NBA Moneyline Odds: Thunder -380 | Lakers +310 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Thunder -8.5 | Lakers +8.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 212
Here’s why I’m backing the visiting favorites in my Thunder Lakers free pick and gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Thunder vs. Lakers Gameday
The prime time event on Saturday features the OKC Thunder on the road to face the LA Lakers.
OKC took the advantage in the series by winning both home games, including their recent Game 2 contest, winning 123-107.
Five Thunder players scored in double figures, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, who each scored 22 points. Ajay Mitchell, who is starting in place of Jalen Williams, chipped in 20 points.
Like their opponent, the Lakers had five players score in double digits, with Austin Reaves leading the way, scoring 31 points. LeBron James added 23 points with six assists and three steals.
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OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers Odds & Last 5
This season, the Thunder dominated, sweeping the series 4-0 and holds a current 6-1 edge over the Lakers in the last two regular seasons.
Much of the playoff history between the clubs occurred when the Thunder were still the Seattle Sonics, so, for the purpose of keeping things 100 – I’m just focusing on the series the clubs have played since OKC became the franchise city. During that tenure, the squads have played twice, and each has won once.
Both clubs had relatively easy first-round series, albeit OKC sailed through theirs while the Lakers had to battle without their top two scoring options for most of the series.
The Thunder are favored by 8.5 points with an over/under of 212 points
Thunder Stats
OKC ranks seventh (117.9) on offense and first on defense (105.9). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+12.0) and run the 15th-ranked pace (100.37).
The NBA’s top team averages 119.4 points per game while its opponents average 107.3 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 25.6 (18th) and 44.2 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (31.1 points) as well as for assists (6.6), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (9.4), Cason Wallace for steals (1.9), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.9).
As for the perimeter, six Thunder players shoot above league average, with the team shooting 36.5% overall.
*minimum 20 games
**Leads the NBA
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Lakers Stats
LA ranks tenth offensively (117.0) and tied for 20th defensively (115.5), with the 14th best net rating (1.5), running a pace of 99.22, which ranks tied for 21st in the association.
The West’s fourth seed averages 116.3 points per game while its opponents average 114.6 points. In terms of dimes and boards, the Lakers average 25.9 (17th) and 41.0 (27th), respectively.
Team leaders* for key categories are Luka Doncic for scoring (**33.5 points), assists (8.3), and steals (1.6), Deandre Ayton for rebounding (8.0), and for blocks (1.0).
LA shoots the deep ball at an average of 35.9%, with eight players shooting above league average, although Doncic and Reeves are in that mix.
*Minimum 20 games played
**Leads the NBA
OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers bottom line:
Although the Lakers kept the game close by mucking up the defensive end and playing with physicality, the Thunder bench has been the x-factor.
That makes for a difficult tweak by LA, who simply don’t have the same depth to address their needs.
Fortunately, reserves tend to perform better at home. Still, it’s felt like the Thunder just need to keep the game in check and then flip a switch to create a marked distance, and poof, the game is out of reach.
OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers Basketball Betting Trends
- Oklahoma City is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 5 games.
- Oklahoma City is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
- Also, the Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the Lakers’ last 12 games.
- Additionally, the Lakers are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played in May.
Thunder Lakers Free Pick: Thunder -8.5
Here is my Thunder Lakers free pick.
Turnovers are an issue for the Lakers, with the Thunder forcing 21 in Game 2, which led to 26 points for OKC. If that trend continues, it is hard to imagine how the Lakers can steal a game.
Certainly, J.J. Redick’s game plan is solid enough, but again, he simply doesn’t have the depth to outlast or outplay the Thunder.
Per John Schuhmann: The Thunder had the No. 1 offense in the first round, not just in regard to overall efficiency, but also relative to their opponent’s regular-season numbers. They scored 14 more points per 100 possessions than the Suns allowed in the regular season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 33.8 points on a true shooting percentage of 67.8%. He shot 17-for-30 (57%) on pull-up 2-pointers.
In Game 2, LA led in paint scoring (52 to 46) while the Thunder dominated the fast break (14 to 4), with the benches being the key separator as OKC’s bench outscored LA 48 to 20.
If the Lakers are to get into this series, they’ll need to win at home, and this game does feel like it might be the one they could potentially win.
That said, 41-year-old LeBron sure could use some extra days’ rest, but won’t get it in this contest as the series continues to be played every other day (although he would get a 2-day break between Game 5 and 6 if the series goes that long).
For that reason, I’m riding the Thunder roll, taking them to win and cover.
P.S. I also like the over and for SGA to have a big game since foul trouble limited him in Game 2.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
“What [OKC] is viewing you as, is a team that’s whining about getting your ass kicked.”@stephenasmith says the Thunder are not concerned with the Lakers ‘in the slightest’ 😳 pic.twitter.com/4HhzIEydlE
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) May 8, 2026
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