Free Pick: Bucks vs. Pacers Odds
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2025 NBA Handicapping – Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers
(11-18) Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers (6-23)
Date: Dec 23, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
NBA Moneyline Odds: Bucks -122 | Pacers +117 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Bucks -1.5 | Pacers +1.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 218.5
Here’s why I’m backing the underdog Indiana as per below in my Bucks Pacers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Bucks vs. Pacers Gameday
Two teams that had designs on being among the East’s leaders have struggled through the first third of the season, and both can point to injuries as the reason why.
While Indy is playing without Tyrese Haliburton and dealt with copious others missing time, it’s the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo that has the Bucks struggling to stay in reach of the teams in front of them.
Coming into this match, the Pacers are completing a back-to-back set, having lost 95-103 to the Celtics on Monday. Four Pacers scored in double digits, with Pascal Siakam leading the way, offering 25 points and six rebounds.
Milwaukee arrives on the heels of losing 100-103 to the Timberwolves on Sunday as they began a five-game road trip.
Five Bucks scored in double figures as they pushed the Wolves to clutch time, but didn’t have enough to overtake Minny. Kevin Porter Jr. led the way with 24 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, and four steals.
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head last season, the Bucks won the series, taking three of the four meetings between the Central Division rivals.
Milwaukee is 1-4 through the last five matches and resides in the 11th seed with a record of 11-18. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains out as rumors of his potential exit continue to percolate.
Indiana is in the East’s basement, only leading the Wizards, as their 6-23 record speaks to their struggles. Through the last five matches, Indy has lost five in a row.
The Bucks are favored to win by 1.5 points with an over/under of 218.5.
Bucks Stats
Milwaukee ranks 22nd on offense (112.8), and also 22nd on defense (116.5), and has the 21st-best net rating (-3.7) while they rank 25th in pace (99.61).
The East’s 11th seed averages 113.1 points per game while their opponents average 116.9 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Milwaukee averages 26.7 (11th) and 39.7 (30th), respectively.
Milwaukee’s team leaders* in key categories are Giannis Antetokounmpo in scoring (28.9) and rebounding (10.1), Kevin Porter Jr. for assists (7.7) and steals (2.3), while Myles Turner leads for blocks (1.5).
Eight Bucks shoot over 36.8% from the perimeter (five shoot 40% and over). As a team, the Bucks shoot 39.9% from deep, ranking second in the association.
*minimum 10 games played
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Pacers Stats
Indiana holds the 30th-ranked offense (108.1) and 19th-ranked defense (116.1). In addition, they run the 15th fastest pace (101.26) while ranking 28th in Net Rating (-8.0).
The Pacers average 110.2 points per game while their opponents average 118.5 points. In terms of dimes and boards, Indy averages 23.5 (30th) and 44.1 (tied for 17th), respectively.
Indy’s team leaders* are Pascal Siakam for scoring (23.8 points) as well as for rebounds (6.7), and steals (1.3), Andrew Nembhard for assists (6.4), and Jay Huff for blocks (2.5).
As for the perimeter, it’s a weakness for Indy with five players averaging above 36.4% from deep and the team shooting 32.3% overall.
*minimum 10 games
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers bottom line:
Indy looked like they had turned a corner and suddenly regressed again. They began the season facing everyone’s best effort because they had made the finals, but now teams just lick their lips to face what is now looking like a tanking squad.
As for the Bucks, the team is the equivalent of those fighting for a play-in berth when Giannis isn’t playing.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Basketball Betting Trends
- Milwaukee is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games.
- Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games.
- Also, Indiana is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana’s last 7 games.
- Additionally, Indiana is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games.
Bucks Pacers Free Pick: Pacers +1.5
Here is my Bucks Pacers free pick.
Indy is struggling on both sides of the court and not utilizing their speed to the same effect as they did a season ago.
Like their opponent, the Bucks are struggling without their superstar. Although they’ve been in games in clutch time, they don’t have a go-to closer without Giannis.
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains out which makes this match much more of a toss-up in terms of which team will prevail.
One area to pay attention to, however, is how the Pacers perform against the spread. While they are losing they are keeping the score within the parameters of the spread, so they are a good bet overall.
For that reason, I’ll roll with the Pacers and the points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
one world, one game 🌍#WorldBasketballDay pic.twitter.com/nxn7yosy8z
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) December 21, 2025
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