Free Pick: Heat vs. Nuggets Odds
Looking for Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Heat taking on the Nuggets on 11/5 at Ball Arena in Denver. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long, so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Heat Nuggets free pick.
2025 NBA Handicapping – Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets
(4-3) Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets (4-2)
Date: Nov 5, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
NBA Moneyline Odds: Heat + | Nuggets – (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Heat +9.5 | Nuggets -9.5
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 242.5
Here’s why I’m taking the points as outlined in my Heat Nuggets free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Heat vs. Nuggets Gameday
With a full slate of games on the schedule for Wednesday, the prime-time match features the Miami Heat visiting Colorado to play the Denver Nuggets.
Miami arrives following an impressive one-point road win over the Clippers, while the Nuggets are also coming off a win versus the Kings.
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2025 NBA Basketball Handicapping
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Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Odds & Last 5
Head-to-head, the Nuggets have dominated the Heat, sweeping the two-game series last season just as they have the last five years, as well as 13 of their last 14 meetings.
Denver doesn’t just beat the Heat; they’ve been doing it by double-digits, especially recently.
Miami is 4-3 on the season with its win versus the Clippers, while the Nuggets sit at 4-2, having not lost at home this year.
Denver is favored by 9.5 points with an over/under of 242.5 points.
Heat Stats
Miami holds the 12th-ranked (116.4) offense, third-ranked defense (109.9), fifth-ranked net rating (+6.4), and the top-ranked pace of 106.43.
The Heat have switched up their system to incorporate a much faster pace and more ball movement.
The fact that Miami sits at 4-3 is a testament to the club’s grit, given that both Norman Powell and Tyler Herro have missed multiple games. *Powell is NOT on the injury report for this match.
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Nuggets Stats
Denver holds the second-ranked offense (121.2) and fourth-ranked defense (110.7) while sitting in third for net rating (+10.5) and running the 18th-ranked pace (101.24).
Denver and OKC are the only teams that rank in the top five offensively, defensively, and in net rating.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets bottom line: While they sit with a 4-2 record, it’s notable that the Nuggets’ two losses featured an overtime loss and one by two points.
As for Miami, of their three losses, only one was by double digits (Lakers), and they were missing Powell in that match, while LA had Luka and Reeves playing.
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Basketball Betting Trends
- Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 14 of Miami’s last 18 games.
- Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
- Also, Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 8 games.
- Additionally, Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
Heat Nuggets Free Pick: Heat +9.5
Here is my Heat Nuggets free pick. Although the Nuggets perform so well at home and have covered the spread, Norman Powell should return for this match which has me pondering the point spread.
Denver allows the lowest opponent perimeter field goal percentage which may be coincidence but with Miami ranking sixth most efficient from deep it feels like that will be the biggest x-factor in this match.
Denver also ranks fourth in defense with their new zone-intensive system, which will be tested by Miami, who possess the third-ranked defense.
Ultimately, I like the Nuggets to win at home but I’ll bank on Powell hitting some deep balls to keep the score closer than 9.5 points.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Nikola’s gameday routine down to a T ⏱️ pic.twitter.com/WOxTbQLrWG
— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) November 5, 2025
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