Free Pick: Maverick s vs. Thunder Odds
Looking for Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder Free NBA predictions? NBA betting sees the Mavericks taking on the Thunder on 11/28 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NBA basketball matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NBA predictions like this Suns Thunder free pick.
2025 NBA Handicapping – Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder
(8-15) Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder (21-1)
Date: Dec 5, 2025
Time: 9:30 PM ET
Venue: The Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
NBA Moneyline Odds: Mavericks +725 | Thunder -1100 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NBA Point Spread Betting Odds: Mavericks +15 | Thunder -15
NBA Basketball Gambling Total: O/U: 228.5
Here’s why I’m backing the underdog Dallas in my Mavericks Thunder free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Mavericks vs. Thunder Gameday
Friday offers a full slate of NBA action, including the Dallas Mavericks facing the OKC Thunder.
The Mavericks arrive following a victory versus the Heat on Wednesday extending their win streak to three in-a-row (season high).
In the 118-108 victory, seven Mavericks scored in double figures. Dallas was led by rookie Cooper Flagg who scored 22 points.
On the other side of the court, the Thunder bring a 13-game winning streak to the hardwood following their victory versus the Warriors on Tuesday.
Five Thunder players registered double figures in the victory led by their MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who dropped a healthy 38 points.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder Odds & Last 5
Last year, the Thunder rarely lost more than once versus any team, and the Mavericks were one of those squads actually defying the odds by taking three of the four meetings.
The teams met once already this year with the Thunder coming out on top.
The Mavericks are 3-2 through the last five contests and are 8-15 on the season, residing in the 12th seed out West. Meanwhile, OKC continues their dominance on the association with just a single loss versus 21 victories.
The Thunder are favored by 15 points with an over/under of 228.5 points.
Mavericks Stats
Dallas ranks dead last offensively (107.6), have vaulted to fourth defensively (111.3), and 22nd in net rating (-3.8), running a pace of 102.39 which ranks sixth overall.
The West’s 12th-place Mavericks average 24.7 assists (26th) and 44.9 rebounds (12th). Dallas scores 111.4 points per game while their opponents average 115.7 points.
Dallas’ team leaders* are Cooper Flagg for scoring (17.3), PJ Washington for rebounds (7.8), Ryan Nembhard for assists (4.6), Brandon Williams for steals (1.4), and Daniel Gafford for blocks (1.4).
Notably, Anthony Davis averages 20.6 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks which are all team highs but he has yet to play 10 games.
Perimeter shooting is a weakness for the Mavericks with only three players averaging over 35.8% from deep.
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Thunder Stats
At this stage of the season, OKC ranks fifth (119.0) on offense and first on defense (103.8). Additionally, the Thunder hold the top-ranked net rating (+15.1) and run the 16th-ranked pace (100.97).
The NBA’s top team averages 122.3 points per game while its opponents average 107.0 points. In terms of dimes and boards, OKC averages 26.1 (13th) and 44.8 (13th), respectively.
OKC’s team leaders* are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for scoring (32.8 points) as well as for assists (6.5), Isaiah Hartenstein for rebounds (10.7), Cason Wallace for steals (2.2), and Chet Holmgren for blocks (1.4).
As for the perimeter, five Thunder players shoot at least 36.6% with four (including SGA) shooting 39.7% or higher.
*minimum 10 games
Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder bottom line: OKC is unquestionably the winner of the first quarter of play and there is no reason to think anything will change especially with Jalen Williams back.
With just a single defeat the all-time games won record is in play, although they won’t say out loud that is a goal of the club it’s hard to deny it’s crossed their minds.
As for the Mavericks, they’ve found an offensive groove, linked to the return of Anthony Davis to the court and insertion of Nembhard into the starting rotation.
Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder Basketball Betting Trends
- Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas’ last 9 games.
- Dallas is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games.
- The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Oklahoma City.
- Also, Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games.
- Additionally, Oklahoma City is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City’s last 12 games against Dallas.
Mavericks Thunder Free Pick: Mavericks +15
Here is my Wolves Thunder free pick. The Thunder are on fire, and now that they have Jalen Williams back, they should only get better.
They lead copious categories, augmenting why they are amassing wins. Just a few of the categories they lead are: opponent field goal percentage (42%), opponent paint points per game (38.2), turnovers forced per game (18.1), points per game off turnovers (24.9), and defensive efficiency (103.6).
Since two-way player Ryan Nembhard (brother of Pacers Andrew) was inserted into the starting rotation the Mavericks possess the eighth ranked offense!
It’s pretty heady statistical areas to lead, but the fact remains the Mavericks are playing better finally. Still, I like the Thunder to get the win but I’ll take the Mavericks and the points for my bet.
Today’s NBA Free Pick
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NBA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Mark Daigneault on what he has seen so far from Jalen Williams since he returned for the Thunder.
“Impressed with the conditioning and competitive level. He kinda didn’t miss a beat there… He’s doing a great job.” pic.twitter.com/NWIuqYyV6d
— Michael Martin (@MichaelOnSports) December 4, 2025
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