Free NCAAF Pick: Hornets vs. Chippewas Odds
Looking for Sacramento State Hornets vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Hornets taking on the Chippewas on 11/11 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium, in Mount Pleasant, MI. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Hornets Chippewas matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Sacramento State Hornets vs Central Michigan Chippewas
Hornets +18.5 | Chippewas -18.5Here’s why I’m backing a Central Michigan ATS bet below in my Hornets Chippewas free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Hornets vs. Chippewas Gameday
The Sacramento State Hornets visit the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Michigan. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ESPNU. Sacramento State enters at 2-8 overall and 1-6 in MAC play.
Alonzo Carter’s Hornets have endured a difficult first season in the conference. They’re still looking for their first road victory.
Central Michigan stands at 4-5 overall and 2-3 in the MAC.
Central Michigan still has a bowl berth to chase, while Sacramento State would settle for a road breakthrough.
Matt Drinkall’s Chippewas are coming off a convincing win over Eastern Michigan. They need two victories in their final three games to become bowl eligible.
Both programs have something to prove.
The Hornets have shown signs of improvement despite their record. CMU needs a strong finish to keep its postseason hopes alive. Wednesday’s game carries considerably more urgency for the home team.
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Sacramento State Hornets vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Odds & Previous Games
Central Michigan opened as an 18-point favorite at -1110 on the moneyline. Sacramento State is +18 at +719, with the total set at 43.5 points.
The Hornets are 1-4 over their last five games.
Sacramento State lost 20-17 to Toledo after defeating Kent State 31-10. Earlier defeats came against Ball State, Ohio and Bowling Green. The Hornets have been more competitive lately, but victories remain scarce.
Central Michigan is 2-3 over the same stretch.
The Chippewas defeated Eastern Michigan 35-7 and Akron 41-17. Losses to Miami (OH), Western Michigan and Ohio have kept them below .500 in conference play.
These teams have never met before.
Wednesday marks their first head-to-head matchup. Sacramento State faces another unfamiliar conference opponent, while Central Michigan gets its final appearance at Kelly/Shorts this season.
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Chippewas Stats
Central Michigan averages 19.8 points and approximately 306 total yards per game. Its rushing attack produces roughly 177 yards per contest. The passing game has been considerably less productive.
The Chippewas have allowed 23.8 points per game.
Their pass defense has been a strength, allowing fewer than 175 yards per contest. CMU has also generated nine interceptions, giving its defense opportunities to change field position.
Nick Woodford has emerged as an important contributor.
Woodford rushed for 123 yards and three TDs against Eastern Michigan. His performance helped CMU dominate possession and finish long scoring drives.
The Chippewas controlled that victory from the opening quarter.
They held Eastern Michigan to 177 total yards and 74 rushing yards. It was one of CMU’s most complete defensive performances of the season.
Angel Flores remains sidelined with an ankle injury.
CMU has also lost several other contributors, forcing adjustments throughout the roster. Drinkall has relied on younger players to maintain production.
Hornets Stats
Sacramento State averages approximately 17 points and 289 total yards per game. The Hornets produce fewer than 100 rushing yards per contest. Their inability to establish the ground game has limited offensive consistency.
Isaiah Ene leads the team with 411 rushing yards.
Ene has scored three TDs, including two against Kent State. His production remains important for an offense that frequently struggles to stay ahead of the chains.
Matthew Coleman leads the receivers with 538 yards.
Coleman has six TD catches and remains a dependable target. Raiden Brown also produced 108 receiving yards against Toledo.
Sacramento State’s defense has finally shown some teeth, but the offense still has plenty to answer for.
The Hornets have changed their defensive approach.
A shift to a 3-4 alignment has produced more aggressive play. Sacramento State forced nine turnovers over its previous two games after struggling to generate takeaways earlier in conference play.
Depth remains a concern.
Several injuries have forced younger players into larger roles. Maintaining the recent defensive improvement for four quarters will be a challenge.
Hornets vs. Chippewas QB Matchup
Jadyn Glasser is expected to start for Central Michigan. He has thrown for 638 yards, three TDs and three interceptions this season.
Glasser has completed 60% of his passes.
He threw for 175 yards and a TD against Eastern Michigan. His efficient performance helped CMU sustain long possessions.
Jackson Sharman has been Sacramento State’s primary passer.
Sharman has thrown for 1,476 yards, nine TDs and six interceptions. He has completed 56% of his attempts, but his availability remains uncertain after leaving the Toledo game injured.
Brian Salazar Jr. replaced Sharman against the Rockets.
Salazar completed 12 of 18 passes for 103 yards in relief. He provides another option if Sharman cannot start.
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Carson Conklin has also been sidelined.
Conklin suffered a broken bone in his throwing arm during the season opener. His absence has reduced Sacramento State’s quarterback depth.
Glasser faces a different challenge.
He needs to sustain drives without forcing difficult throws. Central Michigan has been most effective when its quarterback makes sound decisions and allows the rushing attack to do its share.
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Central Michigan Chippewas bottom line: CMU has the stronger defensive foundation, while Sacramento State needs stable quarterback play to challenge the home team.
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Central Michigan Chippewas Football Betting Trends
- Sacramento State is 2-1 against the spread as an underdog in their last three games.
- Also, CMU is 11-2 against the spread in their last 13 home games.
- Sacramento State has a 6-5 record against the spread after a loss in their last 11 games.
- The Chippewas are 6-0 straight up as a favorite in their last six games.
- Plus, Sacramento State is 2-1 on the over in their last three away games.
- Central Michigan is 3-0 against the spread in their last three games with totals of 42 or less.
Hornets Chippewas Free Pick: CMU -18
Here is my Hornets Chippewas free pick: I’m laying Central Michigan -18. The Chippewas aren’t an offensive powerhouse, but this matchup gives them an opportunity to control the clock and wear down a Sacramento State team running short on healthy bodies.
CMU has covered 11 of its last 13 home games and won six straight as a favorite. I like the situational angle more than those historical trends: the Chippewas are fighting for bowl eligibility, and this is their final home game.
Eighteen points is a serious number, so CMU had better finish drives instead of collecting field goals.
The Hornets have improved defensively, but their depth is being tested. A physical, possession-heavy approach from Central Michigan can make that problem worse as the game progresses.
The danger is a slow start that leaves the favorite chasing the spread.
I want CMU establishing its running game early and forcing Sac. State to play from behind.
This is a spot where the stronger, healthier home team should take charge.
I’m laying the -18. I trust my gut, I trust my college football betting system on this one.
Today’s Week 11 NCAAF Free Pick
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Central Michigan Chippewas on X
Game 10.
#FireUpChips https://t.co/DU8D7Q9UvM
— Central Michigan Football (@CMU_Football) November 11, 2026
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