Free NCAAF Pick: Tigers vs. Bulls Odds
Looking for Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Tigers taking on the Bulls on 11/12 at Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, FL. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Tigers Bulls matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Memphis Tigers vs South Florida Bulls
Tigers -3.5 | Bulls +3.5Here’s why I’m backing a Memphis ATS bet below in my Tigers Bulls free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Tigers vs. Bulls Gameday
The Memphis Tigers visit the South Florida Bulls on Thursday, November 12, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on ESPN.
Memphis enters at 7-2 overall and 4-1 in American Conference play. Charles Huff’s Tigers have already secured bowl eligibility. They’re still chasing a spot in the conference championship game.
The Tigers are 5-0 at home but 2-2 on the road.
Memphis has championship ambitions, and South Florida would love nothing more than to ruin them.
South Florida stands at 6-3 overall and 2-3 in conference play. Brian Hartline’s Bulls have been especially difficult to beat in Tampa, where they’ve gone 4-1 this season.
Those records don’t tell the entire story.
South Florida’s three defeats have come by a combined 14 points. Memphis, meanwhile, has won the four most recent meetings listed in the series history. The Tigers escaped with a 34-31 victory last season, so neither team should expect an easy Thursday night.
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Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls Odds & Previous Games
Memphis is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a -179 moneyline. South Florida is +3.5 at +150, while the total is set at 50.5 points.
The Tigers have won four of their last five games.
Memphis defeated Army 49-22, East Carolina 41-34, UAB 38-13 and Charlotte 59-8. Its only loss during that stretch came against Tulane, 31-17. The Tigers have had extra preparation time since their victory over Army.
South Florida is 2-3 over its previous five contests.
The Bulls beat UAB 30-10 and Kent State 29-2. Losses came against East Carolina 20-17, UTSA 31-24 and Temple 17-13. South Florida has remained competitive without consistently finishing close games.
This series has produced some entertaining results.
Memphis won 21-3 in 2024 after a wild 59-50 victory in 2023. The Tigers also survived a 34-33 contest in 2020, demonstrating how quickly these meetings can turn into scoring battles.
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Bulls Stats
South Florida averages 26 points and 319 total yards per game. The Bulls generate approximately 171 passing yards and 148 rushing yards per contest. Offensive consistency has been a problem despite their winning record.
D.J. Crowther leads the rushing attack with 689 yards and seven TDs.
Crowther has also contributed as a receiver, giving the Bulls another way to move the chains. However, he left the East Carolina game injured, and his availability remains uncertain.
Jason Collins Jr. provides additional backfield depth.
Collins has rushed for 264 yards and three TDs. His role could become more important if Crowther cannot handle his usual workload.
South Florida’s defense has been the team’s biggest strength.
The Bulls allow just 15 points and 313 total yards per game. Their pass defense gives up approximately 183 yards per contest, making sustained drives difficult for opposing quarterbacks.
The defensive front has generated 23 sacks.
South Florida has also recovered eight fumbles and intercepted two passes. Those takeaways have helped compensate for an offense that hasn’t always provided much breathing room.
Tigers Stats
Memphis averages 38 points and 514 total yards per game. The Tigers produce approximately 291 passing yards and 223 rushing yards per contest. That balance has made them one of the nation’s most productive offensive teams.
Jaylin Carter leads the ground game with 929 yards and ten TDs.
Carter averages more than six yards per carry and gives Memphis a dependable option between the tackles. His production helps keep opposing defenses from concentrating entirely on the passing attack.
Hunter Tipton leads the receiving corps with 495 yards.
The tight end has 35 receptions and five TDs. Jermane Hayes has also emerged as an important target, giving the Tigers another option in critical situations.
Memphis can pile up points, although its run defense occasionally invites opponents to return the favor.
The Tigers allow approximately 24 points and 376 total yards per game.
Opponents average 187 rushing yards per contest, exposing a weakness that can keep games competitive. Memphis has been considerably stronger defending the pass.
Takeaways have helped the Tigers overcome defensive lapses.
Memphis has intercepted 11 passes and recorded 21 sacks. That ability to disrupt possessions provides important support when opponents establish their running game.
Tigers vs. Bulls QB Matchup
Michael Van Buren Jr. started South Florida’s first eight games. He has thrown for 1,299 yards, six TDs and no interceptions this season.
Van Buren was injured against UAB and missed the East Carolina game.
His availability remains uncertain entering Thursday. Hartline has not publicly committed to a starter, leaving the Bulls with an important decision.
Luke Kromenhoek started against East Carolina.
Kromenhoek completed 17 of 21 passes for 179 yards and a TD in that defeat. He also demonstrated his mobility with 92 rushing yards in relief against UAB.
Marcus Stokes directs the Memphis passing attack.
Stokes has thrown for 2,532 yards, 25 TDs and six interceptions. His 69% completion rate reflects the efficiency that has made him one of the American Conference’s most productive quarterbacks.
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Stokes enters this matchup following an outstanding performance.
He threw for 371 yards and four TDs against Army, completing 29 of 35 passes. His ability to extend plays gives Memphis another option when protection breaks down.
Air Noland provides depth behind Stokes.
Noland has thrown for 83 yards, two TDs and one interception in limited action. Memphis has an established starter, while South Florida must determine which quarterback gives it the best chance to move the offense consistently.
Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls bottom line: Memphis brings the more explosive offense, while South Florida’s defense and home-field advantage give the Bulls a legitimate opportunity to challenge the favorite.
Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls Football Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 24-6 straight up as favorites over the last 30 games.
- Plus, Memphis is 13-4 against the spread after a win in their last 17 games.
- The Tigers have gone 23-7 straight up in games with totals of 50 or more in their last 30 outings.
- The Bulls are 12-1 straight up in home games over their last 13 matchups.
- Additionally, South Florida is 6-1 against the spread after a loss in their last 7 games.
- The Bulls have a 13-5 straight-up record in games with totals of 50 or more in their last 18 contests.
Tigers Bulls Free Pick: Memphis -3.5
Here is my Tigers Bulls free pick: I’m backing Memphis -3.5. South Florida has been difficult to beat at home, but the Tigers have the offensive depth to make this a miserable night for a defense that can’t afford many mistakes. Memphis has gone 24-6 straight up in its last 30 games as a favorite and 13-4 ATS in its last 17 following a win.
I like the latter angle here because the Tigers are coming off a bye with extra time to prepare.
South Florida can keep this close, but close doesn’t pay when I’m laying three and a half.
The Bulls have been excellent defensively, so Memphis needs patience rather than forcing big plays. The Tigers can wear down opponents by rotating offensive weapons and maintaining pressure throughout four quarters.
My concern is the hook. A three-point Memphis victory loses this bet, making red-zone execution and late-game decisions especially important.
Still, I trust the Tigers to make the decisive plays when this game tightens.
I’m putting my money on Memphis -3.5.
Today’s Week 11 NCAAF Free Pick
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South Florida Bulls on X
Taking on the Tigers back at home. https://t.co/EaT45W6lhg
— South Florida Football (@USFFootball) November 9, 2026
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