Wisconsin vs. Illinois Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/4/2007 6:49:38 PM
College Football Wagering: Wisconsin vs Illinois
Wisconsin has played in very close games this year. Now, they finally get a workable against the spread line. The only problem is that Illinois is much improved from last year and the Illini play very well at home. There are competing trends in this game.
College Football Betting Trend: Wisconsin is 7-1-1 against the spread in their last 9 road games.
NCAA Football Betting Trend: Illinois is 7-1 against the spread in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning record.
Which trend is going to hold in this game? That’s a tough one to consider. Wisconsin barely beat a very tough Michigan State team last week and Illinois beat a former top ten Penn State team last week at home.
I was very surprised by Illinois’ win. Penn State should have bounced back considering that they had lost the previous week to Michigan. Wisconsin’s win was surprising only because I really thought Michigan State would win that game.
Wisconsin is a difficult team to figure out. They gave up 31 points to the Citadel and barely beat Big-10 doormat Iowa.
Illinois looks to be one of those surprise Big-10 teams. They are well coached, have terrific running backs, and a great defense.
I believe that this game will boil down to the Illinois defense. Wisconsin has been scoring well against suspect defenses, but now they must go on the road and face a team with an excellent defense. Illinois is only allowing 2.8 yds per rush and 6.3 yds per pass attempt. That’s pretty good. They haven’t allowed a team to score more than 20 points in their last four games. Whatever happened to Illinois in their first game, a loss to 4-0 Missouri, appears to have been corrected.
What Illinois has done so far this year is more impressive than Wisconsin barely beating Iowa, Michigan State, UNLV, and the Citadel.
In this game, which amounts to a pick, take the home team with the better defense who has shown a willingness to bang heads against tougher teams.
Free Pick: At home, with a chance to beat two Big-10 big-wigs two weeks in a row, the Illini should get the job done.
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