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Posted on 11/30/2007 5:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Bet on NFL – Week 14 Free Picks
Miami Dolphins (0-12) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Sunday, December 9th — Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Buffalo -7 (37)
The Bills look much sharper on offense with Trent Edwards at the helm, and that has to give the Bills betting faithful something to smile about as they face a one touchdown spread against the winless Dolphins. John Beck has been as bad as expected for the Dolphins, although their winless season can hardly be pinned on him entirely. The Dolphins offense has averaged 16.3 points per game, ranking them as the 27th worst offense in the league.
But the Bills aren’t much better. In fact, they’re worse. They average 15.3 points per game but a lot of that has to do with J.P. Losman. The fact is that, no matter how much you might like Miami in this game, John Beck looks horrendous and the only reason he managed to beat the spread this season was because of the torrential downpour in Pittsburgh. Bet on the Bills as they send their aggressive and speedy front-seven to terrorize Beck in to mistakes.
The Bills are a feisty 8-4 ATS this season and may have found a real gem if Fred Jackson does not turn out to be a flash in the pan. Buffalo has been 7-3 SU against Miami in their past 10 meetings, going 8-2 ATS in those matchups. Seems like the writing’s on the wall to me.
NFL Free Pick: Miami 9 Buffalo 20
Carolina Panthers (5-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Sunday, December 9th — Jacksonville Municipal Field, Jacksonville — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Jacksonville -10.5 (37.5)
I hate the Panthers. They’ve been asleep all season, and out of nowhere they decide to wake up defensively and torture Trent Dilfer while molesting the spread in the process. Thankfully, the Jaguars are here to restore order to the universe. The Jaguars are another team peaking at the right time as a ferocious defense, and steady quarterback play, has led them to four straight victories against the spread. In a moral victory, they lost to Indy last weekend, but kept it within three points.
Carolina is a hopeless team. The overall size of the Jaguars offensive line will allow David Garrard to post a decent amount of yardage on the Panthers. Carolina gives up 207.2 passing yards per game, while the conservative aerial attack of the Jags achieves 196.8 passing yards per game.
The massive offensive line for the Jaguars will also rip open holes for MoJo and Fred Taylor as they keep pressure off of Garrard by gashing through this front-seven. The double-digit spreads have been tough to call this season, but the Jags betting faithful should feel confident in their boys covering against a Carolina team that no business being 5-7 SU this season.
NFL Free Pick: Carolina 10 Jacksonville 27
New York Giants (8-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Sunday, December 9th — Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Philadelphia -3 (42.5)
The Giants looked surprised last year at the onset of the two-minute drill last week as they beat the Bears. “We’re actually going to win a game?” Yep they sure did. And the Eagles imploding against the Seahawks last week apparently didn’t warrant enough hatred from Vegas for the Giants to be favored on the road. A big reason has to be the 6-4 SU and ATS edge that Philly holds over the Giants over the past 10 meetings.
But the Giants have gone 7-3 ATS and 8-2 Su in their last 10 games. The Eagles have been erratic going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games at home. And don’t look now, but here comes Donavan McNabb to rescue us from the A.J. Feeley Experience of 2007. Thank you, God.
And I’m sure McNabb is excited to get under center against a defense that abused him for twelve sacks in their last meeting. Brian Westbrook has steadied the Philly offense, but he is a one-man army and the Giants effectively took him out of the equation in their last meeting. On paper, these teams look to be fairly even with similar stats across the board, but Philly is an absolute mess. There’s no reason to trust their inflated stats. Bet on the Giants.
NFL Free Pick: NYG 28 Philadelphia 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4) vs. Houston Texans (5-7)
Sunday, December 9th — Reliant Stadium, Houston — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Tampa Bay -3 (40.5)
Tampa Bay looks to finish the season strong as Houston simply looks to just end the season alive. The Bucs could conceivably challenge the Packers for that coveted number-two spot in the NFC and earn a bye in the playoffs. But first things first – can they stop Sage Rosenfels?
That was supposed to be sarcastic. Of course they can. The Bucs are one of the defenses in the league, and Andre Johnson will have trouble taking care of business against Ronde Barber and a solid secondary. Meanwhile, Sage will face blitz after blitz after the Tampa-2 disguises coverage brilliantly and suffocates him to a sub par performance. The Texans average 21.9 points per game, but Tampa ranks second in the league allowing only 15.6 per game.
The Bucs are 8-4 ATS on the season, while Houston has spiraled down the toilet with a 2-7 ATS effort in their last nine games. Jeff Garcia may not be 100%, but the Bucs won’t need him. The defense is returning to prominence and shutting down strong offenses, while the special teams is making plays when it counts. The few, wealthy Tampa betting faithful should stick by the side of Gruden as they sail towards the playoffs.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Tampa Bay 28 Houston 13
St. Louis Rams (3-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
Sunday, December 9th — Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Cincinnati -6.5 (47.5)
Just when you think Cincinnati is on their way back, they get man-handled by the Steelers in a 24-10 loss. And just when you think Gus Frerotte is going to stink up the Rams again, he leads them to a 28-16 victory over the Falcons. So what’s going to give when these two clash in Cincinnati?
The Rams offense is finding balance again. The force known as Steven Jackson has bulldozed his way to three consecutive 90+ rushing yard efforts. And that should be the key in this game. The Bengals get off balance defensively as soon as the opposition establishes the run. The secondary is atrocious in man coverage, but the Bengals have to bring an extra man in to the box to deal with dynamic powerhouses like Jackson. The Rams will find plenty of room against a defense that averages 118.9 rushing yards per game.
Bet on the Rams establishing the run to throw the Bengals in to panic mode and then allow Holt and Bruce to blow up this brutal secondary. Yes, I like Carson Palmer’s chances against a pass defense that gives up 220.9 defensive passing yards, but your betting money should always sit with a well-balanced offensive attack instead of a one-dimensional offense that has no defense to back them up.
NFL Free Pick: St. Louis 34 Cincinnati 28
Dallas Cowboys (11-1) vs. Detroit Lions (6-6)
Sunday, December 9th — Ford Field, Detroit — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Dallas -11 (53)
It’s America’s Team vs. God’s Team! About a month ago, this would have been pegged as a shootout. But Kitna has reverted back to the Kitna of old, and just lost Roy Williams, his leading receiver for the season. Now this matchup has gone from a shootout to a slaughter, as the Cowboys look to push Detroit below .500 for the first time this season.
The Lions have four consecutive losses against the line, and will be facing a Dallas team that hasn’t been challenged in their past six contests. Terrell Owens obviously took the criticism of his bad hands to heart and has churned in an average of 132.7 receiving yards. Name the cornerbacks in Detroit. I dare you. How’s a no name corner going to hope to contain Owens? Exactly.
With so many defenders being yanked out of the box to try and deal with Owens and Romo in the passing game, Marion Barber should go off (finally) against this rushing defense. Detroit gets blown out for 105.8 yards on the ground, and Barber excels when piercing through the edges of the line. The Detroit defense gives up 25.9 points per game, and will get absolutely crushed by a Dallas offense that ranks second in the nation.
NFL Free Pick: Dallas 37 Detroit 14
Oakland Raiders (4-8) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-2)
Sunday, December 9th — Lambeau Field, Green Bay — 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Green Bay -10.5 (42)
Everyone remembers what happened the last time Brett Favre stepped on the field against the Raiders. He torched them for four scores following the death of his father as the Packers crushed the hapless Raiders 41-7. Not much has changed since then. The Raiders are still one of the worst teams in the league, and the Packers have returned to the cream of the NFC. The Pack is 9-2-1 ATS this season, while the Raiders have gone 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games.
The shining light for Raider Nation has been the emergence of Justin Fargas, who has averaged 132.5 rushing yards and a touchdown in the past two games. And for those of you that didn’t watch him play, a lot of his yards are earned tooth and nail. The man known as Young Hugg, has his work cut out for him against Green Bay which ranks twelfth in the league and has 100.5 rushing yards against per game.
Brett Favre returns to action, not that the Packers betting faithful would feel abashed by having Aaron Rogers under center. Either way, we’re talking about a Raiders team whose commitment to excellence has been replaced by a commitment to sucking. Don’t get fooled by a two game winning streak. Brett Favre and Ryan Grant will continue to blow teams asunder and the Raiders are a speed bump on the way to the playoffs for the Packers. Never underestimate how a team from California is going to react to the frigid temperatures of Wisconsin.
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-9)
Sunday, December 9th — Monster Park, San Francisco — 4:05pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Minnesota -7 (39)
I love this Vikings team. They’re the best team against the rush with 70.5 rushing yards against, lead the league in rushing with 176.8 yards per game and have a set of vultures in their secondary that love turning interceptions in to points. Purple Jesus returned last week to prove that you don’t need an LCL to destroy defenses in the NFL.
San Francisco is a team that the betting community should loathe. They are brutal this year, going 3-8-1 ATS. They are outclassed in every major statistical category except for passing defense. But seriously, are you going to put your hard earned betting dollars in the hands of Trent Dilfer? If you are, then I’m surprised you have betting dollars to spend in the first place.
NFL Free Pick: Minnesota 27 San Francisco 9
Arizona Cardinals (6-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Sunday, December 9th — Qwest Field, Seattle — 4:05pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Seattle -6 (45.5)
Seattle may own the head-to-head matchup, but they won’t forget the 23-20 loss they suffered at the hands of the Cardinals earlier this season. The problem for Arizona this time around is that Boldin and Fitzgerald are nowhere near 100% healthy and the Seahawks are 5-1 SU at home.
Matt Hasslebeck has continued his steady play, helping the Seahawks average 244.3 passing yards by spreading the ball to his set of mediocre receivers. With Adrian Wilson out for the season, the Seahawks move the ball with plenty of ease against the Cardinals defense. The Cardinals give up 223.2 passing yards per game.
Maurice Morris has been a much, much better choice at running-back for Seattle as of late. Shaun Alexander looks like he’s happy just collecting a paycheck right now. Either way, MoMo will guide the unsexy Seabirds to an easy victory over a Cardinals team that has no true number one receivers and a rushing game that everyone would rather forget to mention. I hate this division so much.
NFL Free Pick: Arizona 6 Seattle 17
Kansas City Chiefs (4-8) vs. Denver Broncos (5-7)
Sunday, December 9th — Invesco Field, Denver — 4:15pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Denver -6.5 (37.5)
After laying verbal claim to the division a few weeks back with a decisive victory over Tennessee, the Broncos have notched losses to Chicago and Oakland in the past two games. Now they welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to town in a game that has zero playoff ramifications.
Kolby Smith has emerged as a viable starter, and will likely be contesting Larry Johnson next season since he’s a much cheaper option. The run-first Chiefs have had trouble running the ball behind an offensive line shattered by injuries. They manage only 85.6 passing yards per game, while the Denver Broncos let teams blow by them on the turf for 148.1 yards per game. Look for Kolby to blow it up this weekend.
There is absolutely no reason for the betting backers of the NFL to trust the Broncos. They are 3-9 ATS on the season and are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home. Brutal.
Look for the Chiefs to cram it down the interior of Denver’s shoddy defense as they steady themselves to a victory, while the defense stay over the top to prevent Jay Cutler from producing any big plays.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Kansas City 17 Denver 14
Cleveland Browns (7-5) vs. New York Jets (3-9)
Sunday, December 9th — Giants Stadium, New York — 4:15pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Cleveland -3 (49)
The betting bandwagon for the Browns burnt in to a blistering pile of ash. Cleveland was riding a six game winning streak against the spread, when they stumbled against Arizona last week. Thankfully the Browns can resume their pursuit of an AFC wildcard berth by bouncing the lowly Jets to the curb. Last year, when these two teams met, the Browns walked away with a 20-13 victory.
The secondary for the NYJ is pretty bad, allowing 210.3 yards per game. And, teams mostly punch in scores against the Jets through a steady aerial attack. And guess what the Browns do best? Exactly. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow will be assaulting the Jets secondary all day en route to a victory. Derek “I’m going to be stinking rich this summer!” Brown leads an offense that averages 353.4 total yards, including 247.7 passing yards per game.
Kellen Clemens has been much easier on the betting backer’s eyes than Pennington, and he can easily sneak some touchdowns in against a horrific Browns secondary. But the Jets have done nothing to impress as of late, and Thomas Jones simply can not win this game despite how many touches he gets. The Jets average only 186.3 yards per game through the air, and their forgotten ground game manages a modest 102.1 yards on the ground.
The Browns betting faithful have to be realistic about last weekend’s collapse against the Cardinals. it was bound to happen. But don’t fret! Anderson and company will return to form as the Jets prepare for their Week 15 tilt against New England by getting absolutely destroyed by the Browns. It’s a good way to mentally prepare for the 100 points the Patriots will try to score on the Jets. And you think I’m kidding…
NFL Free Pick: Cleveland 37 NYJ 24
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