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NFL Football Previews NFL Trends Sportsbook Reviews Posted on 11/09/2007 9:50 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Football Betting – Bills at Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins (0-8 SU, 2-4-2 ATS) are still looking for that elusive first win of the season, and they will make another attempt at breaking their losing streak on Sunday (1 PM ET) when they play host to the Buffalo Bills (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS), a division rival, at Dolphins Stadium (grass). In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, the Bills are listed at -4, with the total posted at 41 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* BUFFALO has covered its last five games
* BUFFALO has covered 13 of its last 17 games
* BUFFALO has won five of its last 19 road games SU
* MIAMI is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home games
* BUFFALO has covered the last six meetings
* BUFFALO has won five of the last six meetings SU
* MIAMI has won nine of the last 13 meetings at home
* Three of the last four meetings have gone UNDER the total
* The favorite has covered four of the last six meetings
The hot topic in Miami these days is when the Dolphins are going to relent and give second-round draft choice John Beck a shot as the starting quarterback. After all, they seemed to have bypassed Brady Quinn in the first round of the draft, electing to take a chance with the former BYU star instead. But Cam Cameron has established that for now, incumbent Cleo Lemon (3 TD’s, 4 INT’s) was going to remain the starter. The two have a history going back to the days when Cameron was in San Diego as an assistant and Lemon was an emergency quarterback. I think Lemon is going to repay Cameron’s faith with an inspired performance in this winnable game.
Look, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that these teams appear to be going in different directions. The Bills have won three straight games and covered five in a row, and in their last three contests have allowed just 287 yards a game. The running game has stepped up behind Marshawn Lynch (690 rushing yards), who is looking very much like an AFC rookie of the year candidate. Meanwhile, Miami has lost Trent Green and running back Ronnie Brown and traded Chris Chambers. Zach Thomas is all banged up from a car accident, and there are rumors of massive changes in the off-season.
But if it was simply a matter of betting the team that was going well against the team that is going poorly, this would be an easy business, wouldn’t it? Look at Miami’s record – of the eight losses, one of them was a laydown to Oakland, which provided revenge for Daunte Culpepper, and three more were to teams with explosive offenses in New England, Dallas and Cleveland, which rank 1-2-4 in the league. Four other defeats were by a field goal. Assume that Buffalo is not the kind of offense that generally runs and hides from the opponent; indeed, the Bills are 31st in the NFL with 275 yards a game and score 16.2 ppg. This is the kind of game Miami can keep close, particularly if veteran Jesse Chatman can continue to fill ably for the injured Brown as he has so far (196 yards, 5.4 ypc). The offensive line has actually been a bright spot for Miami, and perhaps Lemon gets some time to throw against a Buffalo front hat hasn’t generated much heat on the passer (just eight sacks).
Yes, we will grab the points with the Dolphins, a four-point underdog in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
NFL betting odds: Buffalo -4 (Total 41)
NOTABLE STAT: Miami is allowing 30.5 ppg – 31st in the NFL
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Buffalo has covered five straight games
NFL BETTING FREE PICK: JAY’S PLAY: MIAMI ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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