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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews Internet Sportsbooks Posted on 10/25/2007 10:25:33 PM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAA Football Betting: USC Trojans vs Oregon Ducks
BetUS college football betting line: Oregon -3, Total: 60½
The Oregon Ducks (6-1 AU, 6-1 ATS) has been one of college football’s best teams for their betting backers, and on Saturday they will try keep that going, as they play host to the USC Trojans (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) in a game that begins at 3 PM ET at Autzen Stadium in Eugene (artificial turf). Oregon is listed at -3 in the Top Sportsbooks NCAA football betting odds, with an over/under posted at 60½ points.
Oregon beat Washington 55-34 last Saturday, covering as a 12-point favorite, rolling up 661 yards and scoring more than 50 points for the fourth time in the last five games. USC was impressive in shutting out Notre Dame 38-0 in South Bend as a 16.5-point favorite, holding the Irish to 165 yards. Oregon is 5th in the USA Today and AP polls, as well as the BCS standings. USC is 8th in the USA Today poll, tied for ninth in the AP poll, and 12th in the BCS.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* USC has covered the last four meetings
* USC has covered four of the last five games at Oregon
* Four of the last five meetings have been decided by double digits
* The underdog has covered five of the last six meetings
Last year USC won in Los Angeles by the score of 35-10 as a 9.5-point favorite, even though Oregon outgained the Trojans by 15 yards.
USC is averaging 34.6 points a game but has been getting some uneven offensive performances due to nagging injuries. One of those was to quarterback John David Booty (12 TD’s, 8 INT’s), who broke a finger and sat out the games against Arizona and Notre Dame. Mark Sanchez took his place, but Booty could be back this week. USC ranks third in the nation in total defense, allowing 252 yards a game. Rushing defense has been a particular strength, as the Trojans surrender just 2.2 yards a carry. USC, however is -4 in turnover ratio, which ranks it 89th among Division I teams. Also:
* USC is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games.
* USC is 23-2 SU in its last 25 road games.
* USC has played its last five games and six of its seven games in ’07, under the total.
* USC has covered six of its last seven as a road dog, but hasn’t been a dog since 2003.
Oregon has scored 46.6 points per game, and its games have averaged 69.2 points. The Ducks have great offensive balance, passing for 255 yards and rushing for 295 yards a game (third nationally). They are second in the nation in total offense. The Ducks are making opposing offenses gain 17.6 yards per point, a very commendable figure. One of the reasons is probably that the defense gets great penetration, ranking 10th in the country with 8.4 tackles per loss per game. QB Dennis Dixon, who is 69% with 16 TD’s and three INT’s, is fourth in the country in passing, and running back Jonathan Stewart has 940 yards, gaining 7.2 yards a carry, best among the nation’s top 50 rushers. Also:
* OREGON has won 13 of his last 16 home games SU
* OREGON has covered 10 of its last 13 games as a home favorite
* OREGON is 23-14 ATS in the Pac-10 since 2003
Free Pick: USC is indeed in a position it is not used to – getting points. And any team that has won 23 of its last 25 games as the visitor has to be inviting. We are uneasy about Booty’s injured finger, however, and if you remember, in the loss to Stanford, he threw four interceptions when that finger wasn’t right. If Booty can’t go, we’re not all that confident in Sanchez in this situation either. It’s one thing to play against Notre Dame, whose defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field because of its inept offense, but this is just the opposite kind of team. Oregon’s offense is high-functioning right now, and their balance is devastating. I’ll go with the Ducks, the three-point dog on the Top Sportsbooks college football betting line, and hope I don’t sound like a quack.
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