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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks Posted on 11/30/2007 8:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
College Football Betting – UCLA (+ 20) vs. USC (- 20)
My first thought is that this is a very difficult game to call only because no matter what any of us may think of UCLA’s chances, the USC Trojans looked absolutely great versus a very good ASU Sun Devils’ team last week.
That, of course, explains the huge BetUS against the spread line of USC – 20. USC will be playing for a Rose Bowl berth, but so will UCLA, so the real question in this game is whether or not UCLA can duplicate what they did last year by upsetting the USC Trojans in Pasadena.
This year’s addition of the L.A. Battle is in the Coliseum, but don’t expect an absolute sea of red. Both UCLA and USC fans are incredibly passionate about this game. This is a true rivalry game in almost every sense of the word. Now, maybe this game isn’t the same as Michigan vs. Ohio State, but to Bruin and Trojan alumni, there is no bigger game football game in the world.
That includes the Rose Bowl.
The trend that speaks most about this game is below:
The UCLA Bruins are 21 and 7 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.
The importance of this trend cannot be understated. What this trend means is that the UCLA Bruins are your classic “play up to or down to the competition” team. Hence, the Bruins’ close loss to ASU and actual loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
What will the Bruins do in this game? UCLA’s D-coordinator, Dwayne Walker, created the blue-print for beating the Trojans last year. If you pressure USC QB John David Booty enough, by mixing up your blitz packages to keep him off balance, your chances of winning become huge.
From an NCAAF bettor’s perspective, UCLA doesn’t necessarily have to win this game; they just have to cover the 20 points. So, the question now becomes, can Walker’s defense keep the Trojans from getting into the end-zone? If it can, then the next question is whether or not Walker’s defense can cause USC to turn the ball over once or twice in this game.
I’m thinking that 20 points is just way too many points considering that Walker’s D hasn’t changed all that much from last year and that the USC Trojans have turned the ball over quite a few times this year. I also believe that odds-makers are discounting the intensity of this rivalry.
That may be the most important thing to remember. USC versus UCLA on the football field means an awful lot to both teams, coaches, and alumni.
The college football betting line is UCLA Bruins + 20 against the spread on the road versus the USC Trojans.
NCAA Football Free Pick: I like the Bruins to beat this spread.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of UCLA’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of UCLA’s last 5 games on the road
UCLA is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
UCLA is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal’s last 5 games at home
Southern Cal is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against UCLA
Southern Cal is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Southern Cal’s last 9 games
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