Tigers vs. Indians Preview + Free Pick April 17th, 2008
By: Cappers Picks Staff
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MLB Baseball Betting Trends – Tigers Seek Win Against Indians
While most sports betting junkies like myself know that the old adage that says hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in professional sports, another age-old fact about the sports is that, often times, the fortunes of any franchise can change in the blink of an eye.
The Detroit Tigers, (5-10, 8-7 O/U) and Cleveland Indians, (5-10, 9-6 O/U), are showing just how trued that old maxim can be as each ballclub has quickly changed directions from their respective starts to the 2008 regular season.
After getting off to an absolutely horrific 0-7 start and the Detroit Tigers, expected to be one of the best teams in the American League this season, have won five of their last eight games and three straight, including an emphatic 12-3 win over the Indians on Wednesday.
The Indians meanwhile have dropped six of seven and three straight in the Top Sportsbooks Sportsbook, while watching their pitching staff fall completely apart, beginning with staff ace C.C. Sabathia as he has given up nine earned runs in each of his last two starts.
“I’m always my worst critic,” Sabathia said. “It’s frustrating that I’ve pitched four games and not even given my team a chance in any of them. That’s unacceptable.”
The Indians will send blossoming hurler Fausto Carmona (1-1, 2.20 ERA) to the mound an attempt to halt their losing ways and should have an excellent opportunity to accomplish their task as Carmona has been stellar to start the 2008 season, allowing just one earned run in two starts covering 13 innings. Carmona however has had trouble with his location walking nine batters to lead the majors with 17 total walks.
The Tigers will look to Justin Verlander(0-2, 6.52 to lead the team to its fourth consecutive victory and are hoping that Verlander can get back to being the dominant pitcher he can be after dropping his last two starts both against the Chicago White Sox.
Verlander allowed six runs in 7 2/3 innings on Saturday, walking four – in Detroit’s 7-0 loss to Chicago.
“It’s baseball. Things happen,” Verlander told the team’s official Web site. “You can’t expect to go out and pitch well and get a win every time.”
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my MLB Betting Free Picks:
Key Tigers Trends
The Tigers are 22-5 in Verlander’s last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Tigers are 21-5 in Verlander’s last 26 starts with four days of rest.
The Tigers are 6-2 in Verlander’s last eight Thursday starts.
Key Indians Trends
The Indians are 4-0 in Carmona’s last four home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Indians are 12-1 in Carmona’s last 13 starts during game two of a series.
The Indians are 11-1 in Carmona’s last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-0-1 in Verlander’s last five starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Under is 5-1-2 in Verlander’s last eight road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
The Over is 8-2 in Verlander’s last ten Thursday starts.
The Over is 4-0 in Carmona’s last four starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
The Over is 4-0 in Carmona’s last four starts as a favorite.
The Over is 4-0 in Carmona’s last four starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Over is 6-0 in Verlander’s last six starts vs. Indians.
The Indians are 4-1 in Carmona’s last five starts vs. Tigers.
The Over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings in Cleveland.
Analysis: While the Tigers are starting to heat up and the Indians are ice-cold, I like Cleveland to win this contest behind a fine outing from Carmona, who could be the Indians real staff ace this season.
MLB Free Picks: Cleveland 5 Detroit 4
07:05 PM EST Baseball Lines
Justin Verlander – R +1½ -190
Fausto Carmona – R -1½ +160
Over 9 -105
Under 9 -115
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