Texas A+M vs. Texas Tech Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/11/2007 6:28:18 PM
College Football Betting: Texas A&M vs Texas Tech
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TEXAS A&M at TEXAS TECH
Oct. 13, Noon ET
Our top sportsbook – NCAA Football Betting Odds: Texas A&M -9
Our top sportsbook – NOTABLE STAT: Texas Tech averaging 52.5 points, 588 yards a game
Texas Tech is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games in this series
(For more stats and trends on this weekend’s games, check out our Matchup Tool)
Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offense, which is kind of like the Run ‘N Shoot on steroids, is running at an even higher octane level than usual right now. No, the quarterbacks Mike Leach puts in charge of this attack don’t make it in the NFL, but they sure have a lot of fun on the college level. The latest gunner is Graham Harrell, who has completed almost 74% of his passes for 28 TD’s and a whopping 2726 yards. Against Iowa State last week, he was 36 of 43 for 425 yards. His top receiver is on track to have the most prolific statistical season in history. A freshman, Michael Crabtree already has 70 catches for 1074 yards and 17 touchdowns (accounting for 102 points). Crabtree is so far ahead of everyone else in these categories that it’s ridiculous. He is already the single-season record-holder for most TD receptions by a Big 12 receiver. You can’t just attribute this to the system itself; after all, a lot of teams have attempted high-tech passing offenses and failed. You still have to have the athletes to execute it. And Texas Tech does.
The Aggies can run the football, without question. The tandem of Jorvorskie Lane (397 yards) and Mike Goodson (363 yards) is a potent combo of power and speed. But, despite coming back from 17 points down against Oklahoma State last week (with the aid of turnovers), this is not a “catch-up” kind of offense; QB Stephen McGee has only 906 yards passing, four TD’s and a little more than six yards an attempt. And he hasn’t had as many as 20 completions in any one game. In last year’s meeting, Harrell out-passed McGee by a 392-103 margin as the Red Raiders won by a 31-27 score as a 2.5-point underdog. The Aggies were burned for 459 yards to Oklahoma State last week, an average of nearly 6.5 yards per play.
A few weeks ago, defensive coordinator Lyle Setencich “resigned” in the wake of Oklahoma State’s 49-45 win over Tech, in which it has three 100-yard rushers. However, this year Texas Tech may have more athletes on the defensive side of the ball than at any time during Leach’s tenure. Even after the tough effort against the Cowboys, the Red Raiders are holding opposing running attacks to 3.5 yards a rush, and just 50% in the passing department. This is not to suggest they’re going to slow Texas A&M to a crawl, but that they might make an extra stop or two that will make the difference between covering and not covering. Also count on an error or two from A&M’s Dennis Franchione, who is a horrific game coach. On the technical side, the numbers greatly favor Texas Tech, which has covered 11 of the last 13 games in the series, as well as the last six meetings that have taken place in Lubbock. The Aggies are on a 7-16 ATS slide as a road team.
JAY’S PLAY: TEXAS TECH ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com still has some of that college spirit. He is a regular contributor to the Top Sportsbooks Locker Room)
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