Texans vs. Jaguars NFL Preview – Free Pick
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Posted on 10/13/2007 9:45:36 PM
NFL Football Betting: Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet On This Game At our top Sportsbook – BetUS NFL betting odds: Jacksonville -6.5 (Total 37.5)
The Jacksonville Jaguars, coming off a strong defensive effort that paid their NFL betting backers handsomely, will look to continue their winning ways on the grass field at AllTel Stadium on Sunday afternoon (scheduled 1 PM ET start), when they tackle the Houston Texans, who have wild card aspirations. In the football betting odds at BetUS, the Jags are listed at -6.5 in this AFC South matchup, with a posted over/under of 37.5 points.
Jacksonville has a record of 3-1 SU (straight-up) and 2-2 ATS (against the spread) and is tied with the Tennessee Titans for second place in the AFC South, a game and a half behind the undefeated Indianapolis Colts. The Jaguars put forth a great defensive effort in their game last Sunday at Kansas City, holding the Chiefs to ten rushing yards on ten attempts and 271 total yards, much of which came in garbage time. Jacksonville has played three of its four games under the total.
Houston, in head coach Gary Kubiak’s second season, are looking to make major strides. At 3-2 straight-up, they may be in last place in the AFC South, but the Texans are one of only seven teams in the conference with a winning record. Houston is also 3-2 ATS and has played over the total in three of its five games. Last time out, they were the beneficiaries of good fortune, as they beat Miami 22-19 on the strength of three field goals of over 50 yards by kicker Kris Smith, including a 57-yarder at the final gun.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD football betting trends:
* Houston has covered five of the last six meetings with J’Ville
* Houston has beaten J’Ville four of the last six straight-up
* Six of the last seven meetings have gone under the total
* Houston has covered four of the last five games at J’Ville
Last year Houston scored a 27-7 win over the Jags as an 8-point home favorite on October 22, and then completed the season sweep with a 13-10 win at AllTel Stadium as a 10.5-point dog on November 12.
The Jaguars let Byron Leftwich go at the start of training camp, indicating confidence in East Carolina alum David Garrard. So far, Garrard has been a nice surprise, with three straight games with a passer rating over 100 and a season where he has yet to throw an interception (in 102 passes). Garrard has completed 67% of his throws, and though he does not take a lot of shots down the field, he suffices for a team that likes to rely on its running game. At their best, the Jaguar defenders are very hard on opposing attacks; in fact, this season they have allowed just 41 points and 284 yards a game. And at home this is a tough team to beat; Jacksonville has yielded just 11.7 ppg in its last dozen at AllTel. Also:
* J’Ville is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games
* J’Ville has won nine of its last 12 home games SU
* J’Ville is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games
Houston has been plagued with key injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Andre Johnson, the Pro Bowl wide receiver, has been out of action, as has rookie Jacoby Jones and veteran running back Ahman Green (149 yards, 4.3 ypc). Green may be back this week, which could provide relief, since former Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne has hardly provided any real answers. Quarterback Matt Schaub has managed to complete 71% of his passes, but this offense lacks explosiveness when it doesn’t have its full complement of receivers. The Texans have done well on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 3.8 yards per rush. Also:
* Houston has won and covered five of its last seven games
* Houston has played seven overs in its last ten games
* Houston has lost 15 of its last 18 road games SU
* Four of Houston’s last five road games have gone over the total
Free Pick: Houston is not at its best on the road, but the Texans, 6.5-point dogs on the BetUS football betting line, seem to have a clear edge in the head-to-head history.
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