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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks Posted on 11/30/2007 8:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAAF Betting – SEC Championship Preview
Preview
A devastating and crushing loss to Darren McFadden and the Razorbacks dashed LSU’s aspirations of a national championship. But the SEC Championship is still well within grasp as they lock horns with the Tennessee Volunteers this weekend. A win against the Vols would give LSU’s name a ton of weight in BCS consideration. But they have to win first and foremost.
Tennessee Offense vs. LSU Defense
The vaunted LSU defense will have trouble containing Erik Ainge, who has a 64.2 completion percentage, 2,908 yards and 27 touchdowns on the season. LSU allows 175.1 yards per game thought the air, while Ainge’s canon has steadied the Vols offense with 255.1 passing yards on average.
A huge boost of confidence goes to LSU since they won’t have to face a frightening running game this weekend. Arian Foster is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, but is not the same gamebreaker that McFadden is. The LSU front four stifles opponents to 106.1 rushing yards against and will be out for blood after last weekend’s abysmal performance.
Ainge will be called upon to win this game for the Vols, and that is a daunting task for a guy who has been known to crumble like a burnt tender flake pie crust in big games. He is an efficient and capable passer, but he lacks the intangibles that betting investors usually rely on in championship atmospheres. His inability to turn the screw in the big one gives the edge decisively to LSU’s defense in this matchup.
LSU Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
Jacob Hester has gone the entire season without generating much attention, which is truly a shame. This may be the perfect situation for him to seize the spotlight as the nation tunes in to this SEC Championship tilt. Tennessee gives up 4.2 yards per carry, and 158.4 rushing yards per game against.
Matt Flynn was a mess last week and simply can’t be counted on as a quarterback. There’s a reason he hasn’t generated that much individual attention. The Vols give up 244.5 yards through the air, but the Tigers will place the ball in Hester’s capable hands to seize control of this game. When called upon, Flynn has to be smarter with his throws. Helping him immensely will be that Early Doucet and the LSU receivers can over power the Vols cornerbacks with relative ease.
NCAA Football Betting Trends
-Tennessee is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games
-total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games
-LSU is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games
-LSU is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Final Verdict
Tennessee has hung around the rankings due to a relatively easy schedule and face an LSU squad that is seething with self-loathing right now. Bet on the Tigers defense storming in to the backfield and making life a living hell for Ainge and the Vols’ rushing attack. The Tigers have been miserable against the spread this season, going 4-7-1 ATS, but a six point spread makes life easier for their betting backers.
#14 Tennessee Volunteers (9-3) vs. #7 LSU Tigers (10-2)
Saturday, December 1st — Georgia Dome, Atlanta — 4:00pm EST
NCAA Football Opening Lines: LSU -6 (61)
NCAA Football Free Pick: Tennessee 13 LSU 28
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