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Quick Hits: College Tips & Picks
Let’s forget about last week. It’s definitely worth forgetting about. The 0-3-1 record is my worst outing of the season by far. If I have to think about anything I’d like to think about what could’ve been.
Wisconsin, leading Ohio State in the third quarter, looked like a lock to cover at +15 but somehow they gave up four touchdowns over the last 18 minutes of the game without getting a score of their own. Then Wake Forest blew their game as a pick’em when Virginia scored a TD in the final minutes to win 17-16.
It’s enough to make a guy sick to his stomach. Don’t worry though; I’ve got the perfect remedy in this week’s picks. At 16-15-1, there’s no way I can drop below .500 now.
#22 Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State hasn’t covered a spread at home all season while Alabama has only covered one spread in the last seven games. And, after last weekend, these teams enter this game on completely different levels. The Bulldogs defeated Kentucky 31-14 last Saturday, while the Crimson Tide suffered a devastating defeat to the LSU Tigers.
How Alabama responds to giving up two TDs in the final three minutes to lose to LSU, 41-34, will play a huge part in this game. Having a coach like Nick Saban definitely helps, as he has dealt with these types of defeats before in his college days and should be able to get his players focused. He’ll have his boys ready and Alabama will want to set the record straight after last year’s 24-16 loss to Mississippi State.
Prediction: Alabama -4½
#25 Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores
A strong start to the season and a Top 10 ranking are a distant memory as Kentucky has lost three of the last four and looks to stop the bleeding against a Vanderbilt team that stunned South Carolina three weeks ago. The Wildcats have owned the Commodores in recent years and covered five of the last six spreads in this series.
The upset over South Carolina is one of the lone bright spots on the Vanderbilt schedule. The Commodores are 5-4 overall but have lost four of their six SEC matchups thus far. Last week, Vanderbilt got smoked 49-22 by Florida and despite a bunch of injuries, Kentucky still has quarterback Andre Woodson behind center.
Prediction: Kentucky -3
#18 Auburn Tigers @ #10 Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs have won six of their last seven games straight up but have only covered three of the last seven spreads. After wins against Vanderbilt and Florida, Troy gave Georgia a tougher game than most people expected but the Bulldogs pulled out a 44-34 win.
Auburn heads to Georgia with a lower ranking, worse record, and as a one-point underdog. So far, 79% of bettors are backing Georgia, but betting against the Tigers on the road hasn’t been a good idea this season. Auburn has covered all three road games as underdogs and they won two of those matchups straight up.
Prediction: Auburn +1½
#17 USC Trojans @ California Golden Bears
USC bounced back from their loss to Oregon with a convincing 24-3 win over Oregon State last weekend. With two losses already this season, a third would make this the worst season for the Trojans since the 2001-2002 campaign. The good news for USC is that quarterback John David Booty returned to the lineup last week, and although rusty, he still threw for a pair of TDs.
For Cal, what a difference a few weeks makes. Ranked #2 in the country in Week 6, the Golden Bears have been anything but golden since that point. Three-straight losses dropped Cal out of the Top 25 and now the team is simply fighting for a spot in a bowl game. A win over Washington State last weekend was a start but now they face a team that has dominated them in recent years. However, there’s nothing that would erase the recent losses like a home win over the Trojans.
Prediction: California +3½
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