Learn How To Bet on ML’s
Moneyline betting means picking a team or player to win outright, with the odds deciding how much you get paid. There’s no point spread to cover. Your team wins, your bet wins, assuming you’ve picked the right game period and bet type.
What Is Moneyline Betting?
Simple enough. So why do so many bettors get themselves buried playing moneylines?
Because picking winners and making money aren’t the same thing. I’ve seen guys lay -300 on a favorite, celebrate like they robbed the place, then watch one loser wipe out three winners. The team did its job. The price was the problem.
I’m Razor Ray Monohan. I’ve spent enough years looking at betting lines to know that the obvious winner isn’t always the right bet. I’ll show you how moneylines work, what the odds really cost you and where I’d rather take a dog, lay a reasonable price or keep my money in my pocket.
How Does a Moneyline Bet Work?
Let’s use a hypothetical NFL game. Kansas City is -200 against Las Vegas at +170.
| Team | Odds | $100 Bet Profit | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -200 | $50 | $150 |
| Raiders | +170 | $170 | $270 |
Bet $100 on Kansas City and a win earns you $50 profit. Take Las Vegas for the same $100 and an upset earns $170. Your original $100 comes back with the profit either way.
The Chiefs can win 17-16 or 41-10. Your -200 ticket pays exactly the same.
That’s what makes the moneyline attractive when you expect a favorite to win a close game. But laying -200 means you need to be right often enough to justify getting only $50 in profit for every $100 you risk.
How to Read Moneyline Odds
American odds use plus and minus signs. Once you understand those two numbers, you can figure out your payout without guessing.
Negative Moneyline Odds: -150, -200 and -300
A minus sign usually means you’re betting the favorite in a two-team game. At -150, you risk $150 to earn $100 profit. At -300, you risk $300 to earn that same $100.
You don’t have to bet those exact amounts.
A $30 bet at -150 earns $20 profit. Move to -300 and that same $30 earns only $10. The more expensive the favorite, the less you get paid when it wins.
Positive Moneyline Odds: +150, +200 and +300
A plus sign tells you the profit on a winning $100 bet. At +200, your $100 earns $200 profit. Drop to +150 and it earns $150.
Risk $20 at +200 and a winner puts $40 profit in your pocket.
Even money is listed at +100. Bet $100, win $100 profit.
Don’t assume the biggest plus sign is the best bet. A +400 underdog looks great when it wins, but if you only cash one ticket in ten, you’re getting your head handed to you.
For the other numbers on the board, see my guide to reading NFL betting lines.
Moneyline Payouts and Break-Even Percentages
Here’s the part I want every new bettor to understand. The odds don’t just tell you what you’ll win. They tell you how often you need to win to stay even over time.
| Moneyline | $100 Bet Profit | Break-Even Rate |
|---|---|---|
| -400 | $25 | 80.00% |
| -300 | $33.33 | 75.00% |
| -200 | $50 | 66.67% |
| -150 | $66.67 | 60.00% |
| -110 | $90.91 | 52.38% |
| +100 | $100 | 50.00% |
| +150 | $150 | 40.00% |
| +200 | $200 | 33.33% |
| +300 | $300 | 25.00% |
At -150, you need to win 60% of comparable bets just to break even. Move to +200 and the number drops to one-third. That’s assuming you’re risking the same amount on each bet, with no pushes.
For negative odds, divide the number after the minus sign by that number plus 100. For positive odds, divide 100 by the number after the plus sign plus 100. Multiply by 100 to get the percentage.
That’s the math. Now here’s where bettors get into trouble.
Can You Win 70% of Your Moneyline Bets and Lose Money?
Absolutely. Let’s say you make ten $100 bets at -300 and win seven of them.
Seven winners earn about $233.33 in profit. Three losers cost $300. You’re 7-3 and down $66.67.
Try telling your bankroll how impressive that 70% record is.
Now take ten $100 bets at +200. Win four, lose six, and you’re ahead $200. That’s a 40% winning record with a better bottom line.
I’m not telling you to bet every underdog in sight. I’m telling you to stop judging a handicapper, or your own results, by winning percentage alone.
RAZOR’S RULE: A winning ticket doesn’t prove you made a good bet. If you keep paying too much for favorites, eventually the losses collect their money. And they don’t offer a discount.
What Makes a Moneyline Worth Betting?
Suppose I give a hypothetical underdog a 50% chance to win. The sportsbook has it at +120.
On a $100 bet, I earn $120 if I’m right and lose $100 if I’m wrong. With a true 50% chance, the average expected profit works out to $10 per $100 bet: half of $120 minus half of $100.
That’s expected value. It doesn’t mean I’m collecting ten bucks tonight.
Tonight I either win $120 or lose $100. The $10 is the long-run average if my 50% estimate is accurate, which is a pretty important condition.
Same Team, Three Different Prices
At +120, that 50% estimate gives me a theoretical $10 advantage per $100 bet. Move to +100 and I’m looking at break-even odds. Drop to -110 and the expected result becomes a loss of about $4.55 per $100.
Same team, same matchup, same opinion. Only the price changed.
Of course, I could be wrong about that 50% estimate. If the team actually wins only 43% of the time, +120 is a bad bet. You can’t pull a winning percentage out of thin air and call it handicapping.
I want a real reason to believe my number is better than the sportsbook’s, and I want some room for error. If my advantage disappears because I missed one lineup change, I probably didn’t have much of an advantage to begin with.
Moneyline vs. Point Spread: Which One Would I Bet?
Here’s a decision I run into all the time. I like a favorite to win, but I’m not convinced it’ll cover the spread.
Imagine Kansas City is -6.5 at -110 against Las Vegas, with a -250 moneyline. These are hypothetical prices, not a current game.
Chiefs win 24-20? The moneyline cashes, but -6.5 loses.
Now suppose my handicap gives Kansas City a 74% chance to win outright and only a 50% chance to cover. The -250 moneyline needs 71.43% to break even, while the -110 spread needs 52.38%.
I’d consider the moneyline. I wouldn’t bet the spread at those numbers.
Why the Points Can Be Better Than the Upset
Flip it around. Suppose I give Las Vegas only a 25% chance to win outright, but a 55% chance to stay within 6.5 points.
At +210, the Raiders moneyline needs to win 32.26% of the time to break even. I don’t like that price. Their +6.5 spread at -110, though, could be worth playing.
Maybe I expect a low-scoring game where Kansas City controls things without pulling away. That can make the Raiders attractive with the points while leaving their outright-win chances too low for my liking.
Both opinions can make sense. Only one might be worth my money.
DON’T FORCE THE MONEYLINE: If I think the dog loses by three or four, I’m not betting it to win just because +210 looks prettier than -110. Give me the bet that fits my handicap, at a price I can live with.
How Moneyline Betting Changes by Sport
The math doesn’t change from one sport to another. What changes is how teams win, what can go wrong and which results your ticket actually covers.
NFL and College Football Moneylines
Standard full-game football moneylines generally include overtime. NFL regular-season games can end in ties; a two-way moneyline without a draw option typically pushes, meaning you get your original bet back.
In football, I look at whether a favorite can win without necessarily blowing anybody out. A strong defense, a dependable running game and a conservative coach can make a team tough to beat while giving the underdog plenty of chances to cover.
But I’m not laying -300 if the favorite’s offensive line is getting pushed around and its QB is under pressure all afternoon. One strip sack can make an expensive ticket look pretty stupid.
NBA and College Basketball Moneylines
Standard full-game basketball moneylines generally include overtime. The bigger handicapping issue is often who’s actually playing and how the rotation changes.
Say a favorite has won six straight, but its starting point guard is questionable and the backup has been turning the ball over. That winning streak doesn’t tell me how tonight’s offense will function.
I’ll wait for the lineup if I need to. Missing a bet beats guessing on a player who controls the entire offense.
MLB Moneylines: Don’t Forget the Bullpen
Baseball bettors love starting pitchers. So do I. But the starter usually isn’t finishing the game, and those last three innings can get ugly in a hurry.
Picture a hypothetical matchup where the favorite has the better starter but its top relievers have worked three days in a row. The underdog has a decent lineup, a rested bullpen and a pitcher who can keep it close.
Give me +145 and I’ll take a hard look at that dog. Knock it down to +105 and I’m probably finding another game.
That bullpen edge gives me a reason to investigate the underdog. It doesn’t give me permission to ignore the price.
MLB settlement rules also deserve a look. Some bets depend on named starting pitchers, while others stay active after a pitching change. Postponed and shortened games can bring additional rules into play.
NHL Moneylines: Full Game or Regulation?
Standard two-way NHL moneylines generally include overtime and the shootout. Three-way regulation bets are different because the tie after 60 minutes is a separate result.
Vancouver and Seattle are tied 2-2 after regulation, then Vancouver wins in overtime. Vancouver’s full-game moneyline wins. Vancouver to win in regulation loses.
I’ll handicap the team defense, scoring depth and special teams, but first I make sure I’m comparing the same type of bet. A cheaper regulation price isn’t a bargain if I need overtime to get paid.
Soccer, Tennis and Other Moneylines
Soccer commonly offers three-way match-result odds: home win, draw or away win. Those bets usually settle after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not extra time or penalties.
In tennis, retirements and walkovers can change how a moneyline settles. Golf has an entire field of possible winners, while boxing and MMA can involve draws or no-contests.
I check the rules before betting anything unusual. I’d rather spend thirty seconds reading the terms than spend the next day arguing about why a ticket didn’t cash.
KNOW WHAT YOU BOUGHT: A team winning in overtime doesn’t help a regulation-only ticket. You can handicap the winner correctly and still lose because you bet the wrong thing.
Why Moneyline Odds Move Before Game Time
Say a favorite opens at -140 and climbs to -170. Maybe an opponent gets hurt, a starting lineup changes or the sportsbook adjusts its price after betting activity.
At -140, you need to win 58.33% to break even. Move to -170 and that jumps to 62.96%.
If I give the favorite a 62% chance, I like the opening number. I don’t like the later one.
And no, I’m not chasing -170 because I missed -140.
There’s also a reason to compare sportsbooks. A $100 winner at +145 earns $145 profit; at +125, it earns $125. That’s $20 you either collect or leave behind on the same winning result, assuming the rules match.
For more on what drives those changes, read my sports betting line movement guide.
My Moneyline Betting Checklist
Before I put a moneyline on my card, these are the questions I want answered. Nothing fancy. Just the stuff that keeps me from making a bet I’ll regret five minutes later.
- How often does this team really win?
Make your own estimate from the matchup, injuries and expected game conditions. Don’t let the sportsbook’s price do your thinking. - Am I getting paid enough?
Compare your winning estimate with the break-even percentage. A tiny edge can disappear fast when your handicap has some uncertainty. - What’s the best available price?
Compare the same selection at different sportsbooks. Make sure the game period and settlement rules match. - What could beat me?
Don’t spend twenty minutes making the case for your team and zero minutes looking at the other side. - Would I still bet it at this number?
Set your limit before the line moves. If the price gets away, let somebody else have it.
Three Moneyline Mistakes That Cost Bettors
Paying anything for a favorite. At -400, four winning $100 bets earn $100 total profit. One $100 loss wipes it out. That’s a lot of winning just to get back to even.
Chasing a big underdog payout. A +300 dog needs to win 25% of the time to break even. If you think it wins only 15%, you’re buying an expensive longshot.
Adding favorites to parlays for no good reason. Every extra team creates another way for the ticket to lose. If I don’t like the price on a favorite by itself, hiding it inside a parlay doesn’t fix anything.
For more on separating a good opinion from a good bet, read my guide to finding good sports bets.
Track Your Moneyline Results the Right Way
Keep a record of every bet: team, odds, amount risked, result and profit or loss. Separate moneylines from spreads and totals so you can see where you’re actually making money.
If you risk $2,000 across a series of bets and finish ahead $120, that’s a 6% return on investment. It’s a useful number, but don’t crown yourself king of Vegas after one good weekend.
Look at your results over time. You might find you’re doing well with short underdogs but giving it all back laying big prices on favorites.
That’s the kind of mistake I want to catch before it eats another month of profits.
Moneyline Betting FAQ
A few common questions before you start betting moneylines.
What is a moneyline bet?
It’s a bet on a team or player to win outright. The odds determine how much profit you make if the selection wins.
What does -150 mean on a moneyline?
You risk $150 to earn $100 profit. A winning $150 bet returns $250, including your original money.
What does +200 mean on a moneyline?
A winning $100 bet earns $200 profit and returns $300 total. The break-even winning percentage is 33.33%.
Is betting the moneyline easier than betting the spread?
The winning condition is usually simpler because you just need the outright winner. Making a profit still depends on getting a good price.
Does a moneyline include overtime?
Standard full-game two-way moneylines in major North American team sports generally include overtime. Regulation-only bets and certain other selections settle differently.
What happens if an NFL game ends in a tie?
A standard two-way moneyline without a draw selection typically pushes, meaning your original bet is returned. Check the sportsbook’s rules.
Can you make money betting mostly underdogs?
Yes. You don’t need to win most of your bets if the winning payouts are large enough to cover the losses and leave a profit.
Can a moneyline bet be voided?
Yes. Cancellations, certain pitching changes, nonparticipation and other situations can lead to a void or push, depending on the sport and sportsbook rules.
Where to Compare Moneyline Betting Odds
CappersPicks features MyBookie, Bovada, BetOnline, XBet and SportsBetting.ag. Compare the available odds and rules before you bet. Sportsbook availability and eligibility depend on your location.
Getting +145 instead of +125 won’t make a losing pick win. But when you’re right, I’d rather have the extra twenty bucks.
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Razor’s Final Take on Moneyline Betting
There’s always somebody at the sportsbook bragging about how many winners he picked last week. Ask him what he laid on those favorites and sometimes the conversation gets real quiet.
I’ve heard enough of those stories.
I’ve passed on games I felt damn sure about, and I’ve lost bets I’d make again tomorrow. That’s part of this business. The trick is knowing the difference between a bad result and a bad decision.
One bad night doesn’t make you a bad handicapper. Keep making the right decisions and let the results take care of themselves.
RAZOR RAY’S TAKE: Everybody can pick the better team. I’m looking for the better bet. If you want me laying three dollars to win one, that favorite better deserve every penny.
— Razor Ray Monohan, Cappers Picks
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