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Posted on 12/08/2007 2:44 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Football Betting – Monday Night Football
MNF Preview
NFL football betting odds: NEW ORLEANS -6, Total 43
NOTABLE STAT: Atlanta has gained 21 yards for every point it’s scored this season
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Atlanta is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as a home underdog
The New Orleans Saints (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS) still have some NFC wild card hopes, and those hopes may increase after Sunday’s games. But nothing will happen for them unless they take care of business against the Atlanta Falcons (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS) in the Monday night contest, set for 8:30 PM EST kickoff from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta (artificial turf).
In the Top Sportsbooks NFL betting odds, the Saints are listed at -6, with the total posted at 43 points.
Here are some NFL football betting stats and trends relative to this matchup:
* NO has covered just four of its last 15 games
* NO has covered 10 of its last 15 road games
* ATL has won three of its last 15 games SU
* ATL has won and covered two of its last ten home games
* ATL has covered four of its last 15 as a home dog
* NO has covered five of the last seven meetings
* NO has won four of its last 12 trips to Atlanta SU
* Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total
Chris Redman was selling insurance last year. Now, because of a couple of quarters of football against the St. Louis Rams, he is the Falcons’ starting quarterback. Redman threw for 172 and led two TD drives against St. Louis, so he gets the call from Bobby Petrino, who must be watching the college coaching openings very closely at about this time.
There is no stability here; Joey Harrington has been benched four times. And Redman, who played for Petrino at Louisville, fumbled his chance with Baltimore several years ago. Because the offensive line is broken down – indeed, the Falcons are using their fourth different left tackle – ultimately Redman will be swallowed up by Will Smith and the New Orleans pass rush (Atlanta QB’s have been sacked 39 times). Jerious Norwood (6.4 ypc) should see a bigger role in the offense, says Petrino, although that’s about 12 games too late. For every point Atlanta has scored, it has had to gain 21 yards. That is terrible, especially as it is compared to New Orleans’ figure of 15.5.
Atlanta has allowed 30 ppg in its last three, which may be a bigger concern. They will not get to Drew Brees (sacked just 11 times), who doesn’t get a lot of rushing yards out of Reggie Bush (just 3.7 ypc) but finds him a lot on pass patterns (73 catches).
Michael Vick is scheduled to be sentenced Monday. But having to stick with this Atlanta team through the season may have been a sentence much worse.
You don’t normally like to lay points like this on the road with a team that is under the .500 mark, but Atlanta is so confused and so punchless right now that there is only one way to go. So a small recommendation is in order for the Saints, the six-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks football betting odds.
NFL Monday Night Football Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: NEW ORLEANS
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