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Posted on 11/30/2007 2:44 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Monday Night Football – Bet on NFL – New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
MNF Preview
Can Kyle Boller do what A.J. Feeley nearly did against the Patriots? The answer is inevitably “no”. However, with a massive spread going against the Patriots, can Baltimore rally enough to cover this ridiculous spread? Seriously, this is the biggest spread in the NFL betting odds this season. It’s almost as big as the average college game spread!
New England Offense vs. Baltimore Defense
If you hadn’t been following this season, you would think the Baltimore defense would stand a chance against the Brady Bunch in this game. But the Ravens defense has been nothing short of pathetic. The once-great passing defense is now ranked fifteenth in the league and allows 213.5 passing yards per game. The rush defense has been the saving grace for this team, giving up an impressive 77.9 rushing yards.
But Tom Brady is simply going to be too much for this defense. Everyone keeps talking about Philadelphia’s defense providing a blueprint for how to beat the Patriots, but that is nothing but a load of bull. Tom Brady was off. He missed two key throws to Moss and Welker that would’ve essentially put the game out of reach. He was throwing around, above and behind his receivers for the first time this 2007 season. And he still managed 380 yards and a touchdown. How scary is that?
Brady and the offense will return to form and the betting investor can rest assured that the Patriots will return to their spread crushing ways of the best. Baltimore lacks the proper speed at linebacker to cover guys like Ben Watson, and lack the height to cover both Donte Stallworth and Randy Moss. Bet on the Patriots offense to drop bombs all over the field as the Baltimore defense scrambles to make adjustments.
Baltimore Offense vs. New England Defense
The reason this spared is so big is because Baltimore’s offense has averaged 16.5 points per game. Barring the 30-point effort against Cleveland in Week 11, Baltimore was averaging 10.5 points per game in the last four games. That’s atrocious.
The Patriots will also have the inside track with Adalius Thomas, who knows this defense inside and out. Thomas was brought in during an off-season signing and has been a big part of the defense in New England. The Patriots will focus on stuffing Willis McGahee. The Pats give up only 86.2 yards on the ground, and with the score getting out of hand, Boller will be forced to through.
New England gives up 195.6 passing yards, but Boller throws ducks like he’s trying to make friends with Ducks Unlimited Hunting Club. The receiving corps in Baltimore is simply not impressive enough to warrant any love from the betting investor.
NFL Betting Trends
-New England is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games
-Baltimore is 1-10 ATS this season
-total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 7 road games
-New England is 4-0 SU against Baltimore dating back to 1995
Final Verdict
Need I say more? Brady will return to his poetic form on Monday night as he trounces the Ravens’ secondary. Look for him to get back on track as Brian Billick and the Ravens are left wondering what the hell they are doing playing football in the NFL. The Ravens are one of the worst teams in the league this year, and Monday Night will be no exception.
New England Patriots (11-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-7)
Monday, December 3rd — M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore — 8:30pm EST
NFL Betting Odds Opening Line: New England -20 (51.5)
NFL Free Pick: New England 43 Baltimore 9
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