Raiders vs. Dolphins NFL Preview – Free Pick
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Posted on 9/29/2007 8:29:08 PM
NFL Betting Free Picks – Oakland Raiders (+4) at Miami Dolphins (-4)
Bet On This Game At our top Sportsbook – The Miami Dolphins (0-3 SU, 0-1-2 ATS, 2-1 0/U) are off to a horrendous 0-3 start, just as I predicted, and have more trouble on their hands this week in the form of the Oakland Raiders and their improved offense and fairly stout defense.
The Dolphins are ranked a surprising 14th in the league in offense (7th passing) but have watched their usually, top-10 defense, fall all the way to 20th in the league, including a dismal 29th against the run. Miami’s 27th-ranked rushing offense is also a huge problem that needs to be addressed immediately.
The Oakland Raiders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U) won their first game of the regular season last week, beating the Cleveland Browns 26-24, thanks to an improved offense that now ranks 15th in the league, including the team’s third-ranked rushing attack.
Oakland is experiencing similar problems on defense, where they have fallen from third in the league last season in total yards allowed to a defense that is now ranked 27th overall (25 pass, 22 run).
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my Free NFL Betting Picks:
Key Raiders Trends
The Raiders are 34-6-1 ATS in their last 41 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Raiders are 42-13-2 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Key Dolphins Trends
The Dolphins are 8-2-1 ATS in their last eleven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Dolphins are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.
The Dolphins are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 7-1 in Raiders last eight games in Week Four.
The Under is 6-1 in Raiders last seven games as a road underdog.
The Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
The Under is 43-10-1 in Dolphins last 54 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Analysis: This matchup, between two of the most storied franchises in AFC history, is a far cry from the days of Bob Griese against Ken Stabler, but at least both teams are fairly evenly matched in mediocrity now. As a lifelong Dolphins follower, I would love to say this is a game the ‘Fins are going to win and cover, but I just don’t see it happening here. Take the Raiders to cover the spread and likely win this game outright.
NFL Free Picks: Raiders 28 Dolphins 27
01:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Oakland Raiders +3½ -110
Miami Dolphins -3½ -110
Over 41½ -110
Under 41½ -110
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