Phillies vs. Astros Preview + Free Pick April 09th, 2008
By: Cappers Picks Staff
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MLB Baseball Betting Trends – Indians at Angels
With three wins in their last four games, including a thrilling 4-3 walk-off win over the Houston Astros, (5-9, 4-10 O/U) on Tuesday, the Philadelphia Phillies, (7-7, 6-8 O/U) are beginning to look like the sports betting team that won the National League East last season with one of the greatest finishes in franchise history.
After getting stymied by Astros starter Shawn Chacon for eight innings, the Phillies rocked Astros closer Jose Valverde for four runs in the ninth inning, winning as outfielder Geoff Jenkins scored the game-winning run despite striking out. Jenkins reached base on a passed ball and scored on Pedro Feliz’s walk-off double, sliding in to home base just before the tag.
Valverde led the National League in saves last season recording 47 saves for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
“It’s over today and I’ll be back tomorrow,” Valverde said after Tuesday’s collapse.
The Astros will need to get a solid performance from staff ace Roy Oswalt who has looked nothing like the often-dominant pitcher he has been throughout his major league career.
Oswalt, (0-3, 9.00 ERA) is 0-3 for the first time in his career and got absolutely rocked in his last start, allowing a career-high eight runs in four innings as Houston lost 10-6 to Florida on Friday.
“I have never went through this before,” Oswalt said. Hopefully it will change.”
The Phillies will send young hurler Kyle Kendrick, (1-1, 6.14), to the mound hoping for better performance than Kendrick delivered in his last start as he was also rocked, giving up seven runs to the New York Mets in just 2 1/3 innings of Philadelphia’s 8-2 loss last Wednesday.
Of course, the Phillies committed four errors in the game, allowing Kendrick to give up just one earned run despite the shaky outing.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my analysis and MLB Betting Free Picks:
The Astros are 9-2 in Oswalt’s last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.
The Astros are 8-2 in Oswalt’s last 10 starts vs. National League East.
The Phillies are 5-1 in Kendrick’s last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.
The Phillies are 5-1 in Kendrick’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
The Over is 4-0 in Oswalt’s last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Over is 6-1 in Oswalt’s last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Over is 4-0 in Kendrick’s last 4 starts overall.
The Over is 4-0 in Kendrick’s last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
The Astros are 5-0 in Oswalt’s last 5 starts vs. Phillies.
The Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Analysis: Despite the fact that I fully believe the Phillies are the better team in this matchup. I am taking the Astros to bounce back from last night’s disheartening loss while helping Oswalt pick up his first victory of the regular season.
MLB Free Picks: Astros 6 Phillies 3
07:05 PM EST MLB Odds
Roy Oswalt – R +1½ -200
Kyle Kendrick – R -1½ +170
Over 9½ -110
Under 9½ -110
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