Penn St. vs Indiana Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/18/2007 9:45:34 PM
NCAA Football Odds: Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers
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Our top sportsbook – BetUS college football betting odds: Penn State -8, Total: 54
The Penn State Nittany Lions, riding the crest of their biggest win of the season, will attempt to continue the momentum as they venture to Bloomington, IN and the natural turf surface of Memorial Stadium to take on the Indiana Hoosiers, in a game scheduled for Noon ET on Saturday. Penn State, which has recently re-entered the USA Today national rankings poll at the #25 spot, is listed at -3 in the Top Sportsbooks NCAA football betting odds, with the over/under posted at 54 points.
The teams have identical 5-2 SU (straight-up) records. Penn State is 4-3 ATS (against the spread, while Indiana is 3-2 ATS in its five “lined” games. Indiana has played three of those five games over the posted total, while the Nittany Lions have played four of their seven games under the total. Penn State dominated Wisconsin last Saturday, piling up 437 yards of offense en route to a 38-7 win, which easily covered the seven-point spread as a favorite. That makes it two straight wins and covers for Penn State. Indiana traveled to Lansing last weekend and as a 3.5-point underdog, lost a 52-27 decision to Michigan State. The game was not as close as the score indicated; the Hoosiers had only 193 yards of total offense, compared to 558 yards for the Spartans.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* Penn State is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings
* Penn State is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
* Penn State has won the last eight meetings SU
* Indiana has not topped 25 points in the last six meetings
* Penn State has averaged 40.6 ppg against Indiana in the last eight meetings
Because of the size of the Big Ten Conference (which has eleven teams), the members schools do not play all the others each year. Therefore, the last time these two teams met was in 2004, when Penn State eked out a 22-18 win at Bloomington and pushed as a four-point favorite. The game went under the 41.5-point total.
Indiana has averaged 36 points per game on the season, though its defense has not always answered the call, yielding 25.3 ppg, almost twice as much as Penn State. Indiana has managed to achieve some pretty decent balance in its offensive attack, gaining 235.4 yards a game through the air and 177.6 per game on the ground. The Hoosiers’ wins have come at Iowa and against lesser lights Indiana State, Western Michigan and Akron. As a team, they are rated 42nd in the country in total offense and 63rd in total defense. On the superlative side, they are also seventh in the nation in punt returns (behind senior Tracy Porter) and have registered more quarterback sacks (32) than any team in the country. QB Kellen Lewis (16 TD’s, 6 INT’s) ranks 24th in the nation in passing efficiency. Also:
* Indiana has won five of its last seven home games SU
* Indiana is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 as a home dog
* Indiana is an even 6-6 ATS since last year in the conference
* However, Indiana is 14-29-1 ATS in the Big Ten since 2002
In its last two games, Penn State has demonstrated very strong offensive balance, gaining over 200 yards both rushing and passing in both of them. Coincidentally, they outscored Wisconsin and Iowa by a combined 65-14 in those games. Running back Austin Scott was suspended indefinitely for being involved in an off-campus rape and assault case, but Rodney Kinlaw has been outstanding in his place, rushing for 662 yards (5.6 ypc) and five TD’s. QB Anthony Morelli has been serviceable, completing 58% of his passes for 11 TD’s. The Nittany Lions are ninth in the country in rushing defense and limit their opponents to 2.3 yards an attempt. They are also fifth in scoring defense, allowing foes just 12.7 ppg, and are tied for second in the nation in sacks. Also:
* Penn St. has played 10 of its last 14 games under the total
* Penn St. has covered just two of its last eight road games
* Penn St. is just 7-15 SU in its last 22 road games
* Penn St. has played four unders in its last five road games
* Penn St. is 4-8 ATS in its last dozen Big Ten games
Free Pick: Because of its newfound balance on offense and the successful history it has had with the Hoosiers over the last dozen years, as well as Indiana’s inability to cover as a home dog, which may negate Penn State’s road woes to an extent, there seem to exist both matchup and statistical edges for the Nittany Lions, the 8-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks NCAA football betting odds.
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(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com still has some of that college spirit. He is a regular contributor to the Top Sportsbooks Locker Room)
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