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Posted on 12/28/2007 11:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Bet On NFL – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
When the New England Patriots (-14) attempt to rewrite many pages in history books against the Giants (+14) in New York on Saturday, the entire NFL betting community will be in attendance. The game was originally scheduled to be shown only on the NFL Network, but will instead be aired on national television beginning at 8:00pm EST.
Already the first team to go 15-0 SU (straight up) in a regular season, New England now tries to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins as the only teams to take an unbeaten record into the playoffs. The Patriots are 10-5 ATS (against the spread) on the year.
In addition to their record breaking pursuit for perfection, Tom Brady and Randy Moss have impressive league records within their reach this week, and New England seems unlikely to rest many starters despite having the AFC’s top seed wrapped up. That could be the difference between a money-making win or a bankroll busting effort.
Brady needs two touchdown passes to break Peyton Manning’s record of 49 and Moss is two touchdowns receptions away from surpassing Jerry Rice’s record of 22.
New England does not get to play this one at home, but could benefit from the fact New York is locked into the No. 5 seed in the NFC and might want to rest some starters because it does not have a first-round bye. The Giants will visit Tampa Bay in a wild-card game next weekend.
No opponent has been able to defensively stop the Patriots, whose 551 points leave them needing just six to break the league’s single-season record set by the 1998 Minnesota Vikings.
New England is scoring a robust 36.7 points per game and racking up 412.7 yards, both an NFL-best.
Another record within the Patriots’ grasp is the one for consecutive regular-season victories. They already have tied their own league record by winning 18 straight.
New England has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games and has not dominated teams as it did during the first half of the season. Four of its previous six wins were by 10 points or less before it failed to score in the second half last week against a one-win Miami team in a 28-7 money-dropping victory as the 22-point favorites.
– Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.
– Patriots are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
– Patriots are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Brady threw two interceptions in that victory, increasing his season total to eight, and completed less than 55 percent of his passes for the third time in four weeks, but he managed to throw for 215 yards and three touchdowns. He enters this game 105 yards shy of Drew Bledsoe’s 1994 club record of 4,555.
One area of concern for head coach Bill Belichick may be his run defense, having allowed an average of 136.3 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this month.
– Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 17.
– Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Saturday games.
– Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games in December.
– Patriots are 41-18-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
– Patriots are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 road games.
– Patriots are 58-28-3 ATS in their last 89 games overall.
The Giants ran for 291 yards last week, their most since 1959, in a 38-21 win at Buffalo as they clinched their third straight playoff spot as the 1-point favorites. They have now covered the spread in three of their last four games and are 9-6 ATS this season.
– Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.
– Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Giants are scoring 22.5 points per game and collecting 332.4 yards, meanwhile, they are allowing 20.9 points and 299.3 yards on defense.
New York has previously knocked off a team pursuing perfection late in a season and it came at Giants Stadium, handing a 13-0 Denver team its first defeat on Dec. 13, 1998.
This Giants team, though, has not won a home game SU since Oct. 21 against lowly San Francisco, losing three in a row. At 3-4 SU and ATS, New York is the only team to have qualified for the playoffs that does not have a winning home record.
– Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17.
– Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
– Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
– Giants are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
– Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
NFL odds list New England the 14-point favorites with a game total of 46½. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 17 and they’re 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite. New England has covered the spread in ten of their games, meanwhile, the Giants are 9-6 ATS on the year and 10-5 SU.
Analysis: A regular season finale that will have no effect on the playoff picture has never meant so much. The Giants are more likely to rest their starters then the Patriots with all the records within reach for New England.
Belichick won’t call of the dogs until his club has a comfortable lead and all records are broken. A Patriots club versus a team resting its starters for a majority of the game makes for an easy cover win for New England.
NFL Free Picks: New England -14
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