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Posted on 11/20/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Green Bay Packers (9-1) vs. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Thanksgiving Day Football – November 22, 12:30 PM | Turf of Ford Field
Opening NFL Betting Line: Packers by 3 1/2
The Detroit Lions have hosted a game on Thanksgiving every year since 1934 and the Green Bay Packers have been their most frequent holiday guest. Thursday’s Turkey Classic marks the 18th time the teams fight over the wish bone – the Lions own an 11-5-1 edge in the rivalry through the years. The Lions playoff hopes took a severe blow last week after suffering a disappointing loss to the Giants and their schedule down the stretch won’t help. The Packers took care of business, disposing of the downtrodden Carolina Panthers, pushing their record to 9-1 for a share of the NFC odds lead. The Week 12 line has the visiting Packers favored by (-4) at Ford Field, but the Lions’ have a knack for playing the Packers tough on Turkey Day and their playoff lives depend on it.
Brett Favre continued his sensational play last week against the Panthers going 22-for-30 for 218 yards and three touchdowns (his 2,975 passing yards this season is second only to Tom Brady). Favre is effectively spreading the ball around to all his targets – last week tight end Donald Lee had two touchdowns grabs and receiver Ruvell Martin is seeing more action. The Packers offense has developed a more balanced attack thanks to the solid running of Ryan Grant who has started the last three games and is averaging 4.3 yards a carry. This enables Favre to hit big plays deep downfield off the play-action as he has successfully in consecutive weeks. Green Bay will attack the Lions secondary with multiple four and five receiver sets putting even more pressure on a struggling unit. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and rookie James Jones will severely test Detroit corners Travis Fishers and Fernando Bryant. The Lions are giving up an average of 256.7 yards per game through the air and will need to find a way to pressure Favre in the pocket – Defensive end Dewayne White has six sacks and Shaun Rogers gets a big push up the middle.
The Detroit Lions offense has been one-dimensional for most of the season and it becomes a glaring weakness against teams that can pressure the quarterback like the New York Giants did last week (Michael Strahan had three sacks). The Packers can certainly bring the heat (Aaron Kampman and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila have combined for 17 sacks) while lock-down corners Al Harris and Charles Woodsen can neutralize top wide receivers with their physical man-to-man coverage. To avoid the losing blueprint of last week, Jon Kitna must avoid forcing the ball into coverage and any semblance of a running game would certainly help. After rushing eight times for minus-18 yards at Arizona, the Lions rushed 11 times for 25 yards against the Giants (2.3 yards a carry). They’ll need to do much better against a tough Packers run defense if they want a chance to win this game. The Packers front four gets penetration and linebackers Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk have been flying to the ball. Detroit’s woes start up front and offensive tackles Jeff Backus and George Foster will be in tough again this week.
The Green Bay Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Head Coach Mike McCarthy is an early favorite to win Coach of the Year honors – he won’t let his team look ahead to their Week 13 match-up against Dallas before erasing a tough divisional foe.
NFL BETTING FREE PICK: PACKERS AT -4
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