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CBB – Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (9:00 PM ET – ESPN)
Sportsbook.com: As the calendar readies for the turn to February, it means we’re just over one month away from March Madness. Still, there’s plenty of business to take care of between then and now.
With the conference races heating up and the rivalry games becoming more and more important, ESPN’s Big Monday will offer up a showdown between neighbors, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Slated for 9:00 PM ET, it’s the middle game of three on the Worldwide Leaders’ networks.
In football, these teams wage a war called the ‘Bedlam Battle’, on the hardwood, the rivalry is just an intense. It’s been a very competitive series as well, with the teams splitting the last 20 games, both straight up and against the spread. The home team has generally enjoyed the most success, winning five of the last six games.
If recent patterns are anything to consider for Monday’s game, that home team trend is likely to continue, as Cowboys’ coach Sean Sutton would have better luck riding eight seconds on a bull named Fu Manchu than getting his team to play well on the road. So far this season, the results have been ugly: 1-7 straight-up and 1-6 ATS. This trend shows it isn’t an isolated problem either:
Oklahoma State is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.
The average score was Oklahoma State 65.6, opponent 78.5 – (Rating = 4*)
The average point deficit of 13 ppg is a definitive concern for Sutton.
Meanwhile, the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma is about as tough as it gets when it comes to road venues. The Sooners always seem to be at their best in front of the home folks. Throw in the rivalry aspect and a national television crowd on Big Monday, and the odds are certainly in the hosts’ favor.
So far this season, the Sooner and head coach Jeff Capel are 9-2 straight-up and 4-3 ATS at home, outscoring foes by a healthy 17 ppg. They boast impressive wins over Texas Tech and Arkansas, but fell at the hands of Michael Beasley and Kansas State, so they are beatable.
With the pointspread expected to be in the high single digits, here’s another trend to consider:
Oklahoma State is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus good teams, outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was Oklahoma State 66.7, opponent 74.3 – (Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Power Ratings show Oklahoma by 10, while the Outplay Factor Ratings say Oklahoma by10.2. The StatFox Forecaster calls for a 75-66 Oklahoma win.
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