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NFL Winners – Take it or Leave it: Week 10
I should know better, but counting my money before it’s in the bank is always something that’s tempting to do. And it’s something I was doing last week before Brett Favre decided to connect with Greg Jennings for a TD that left Kansas City bettors, and fans, stunned.
Kansas City had kept Favre, and the rest of the Green Bay offense, in check all game and with a 22-16 lead heading into the final five minutes, I thought the Kansas City defense was ready to shut the show down and head home.
It was all good until, for the second week in a row, Favre launched a bomb which Greg Jennings caught and ran in for a touchdown. It was the beginning of the end. Green Bay went on to score 17 points in the final 3:05 to win 33-22 as two-point underdogs.
That was my first NFL Pick of the Week loss in over a month. At 5-3-1, I’ve still made more money than I’ve coughed up, and that’s always a bonus.
This week, I’m gonna dip into the Sunday Night Football matchup for the first time this season. Bettors are all over Indy for this matchup, with 92% of the action being placed on Indianapolis.
As slim 3 ½-point favorites, there’s a lot of reason to like Indy in this game. But the Chargers shouldn’t be forgotten about just yet.
San Diego, one of the preseason favorites to win the AFC this season, was embarrassed in Week 2 by New England and again last week by Minnesota. The Chargers defense let Vikings’ rookie running back Adrian Peterson run all over them for a record 296 rushing yards.
The end result, a 35-17 loss, wasn’t pretty for the Chargers and hopes of a Super Bowl party are fading fast. What better way to restore the hope than with a strong showing against one of the elite teams in the NFL.
The Chargers have played the defending champs tough and covered the spread in the last two meetings between these two teams, including an outright win as a seven-point dog the last time they met San Diego has always run the ball well against Indy and while the Colts defense is statistically better against the run this season, teams have proven that they are vulnerable. New England ran the ball effectively last weekend before resorting to the air attack to sneak out the late victory.
A few weeks back, Denver rushed for over 200 yards against the Colts D. The opportunity for LaDainian Tomlinson and backup running back Michael Turner to have a big game this weekend is there.
And if the San Diego defense doesn’t show up after last week’s embarrassment, they never will. This group was shown up by a rookie and they should be raging mad. There’s no better time to take back some respect than shutting down quarterback Peyton Manning, his elite receivers and running back Joseph Addai.
I’m in the minority, but I like the Chargers. There’s too much at stake for the team to hang their heads after last week. It’s time to show up, get the job done against one of the league’s best and prove to everyone they deserved the preseason hype they received.
Free Pick: I’m taking the Chargers at +4. Take it or Leave it.
NOTE: As always, my picks are not guaranteed. I am not an expert handicapper and everything I say can, and likely will, blow up in my face. Take my thoughts, or leave them, simple as that.
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