NFL Free Picks – Saints vs. Colts
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Posted on 9/5/2007 8:35:16 PM
New Orleans Saints (0-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Thursday, September 6th — RCA Dome, Indianapolis — 8:30pm EST
Opening Football Lines: Colts -6.5 (49.5)
What a way to start the season! Two of the top-3 offenses from last season clash in what could very well be a preview of Superbowl XLII. Sean Payton leads his Saints into the RCA Dome to challenge Tony Dungy and the defending champions in what is expected to be an offensive explosion.
Saints Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Colts run defense was a mess during the regular season last year, and the loss of Booger McFarland does nothing to help matters. Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are going to pile up yards behind an offensive line that genuinely outmatches the Colts defensive front four. Deuce will pound them and Reggie will keep the defense guessing as he is used in multiple looks.
With the Saints rushing attack gashing the Colts defense, Bob Sanders is going to have to decided whether to help plug the run or sit back and cover the pass. Any slight hesitation on his part and Drew Brees will tear this secondary to the ground. Marques Colston and the speedy Devery Henderson are fantastic compliments and the Colts corners aren’t very strong.
The single hope for the Colts is Dwight Freeney, who will have to prove that he is worth every penny of that monstrous extension he signed this summer as he goes up against Jammal Brown, the left tackle who is the corner stone of a solid Saints offensive line.
Colts Offense vs. Saints Defense
The Saints boast two immense defensive ends in Charles Grant and Will Smith, who will terrorize rookie Tony Ugoh at left tackle. Peyton’s usually solid offensive line underwent some changes and the Saints may be able to pressure him more often then you might think.
But the Colts will counter with a run game that they lean on to open up the passing game. Joseph Addai is everyone’s favorite to make the big leap this year, and there is no reason to believe otherwise. The Saints have a strong front seven, but they will have to contend with Manning who excels with audibles at the line – which expose defensive weaknesses.
Where the Saints are noticeably deficient is at cornerback, which is not a weakness you want to have against Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. To put this simply, Peyton Manning is going to have one of those days where, after he’s done, the Saints might want to think about cutting every cornerback they have on staff.
Current Betting Trends
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against New Orleans
Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
To say this is going to be a shootout is like saying that Travis Henry needs to invest in a time machine a and a pack of condoms.
With Brees and Peyton, two mistake-free quarterbacks, engaged in a titanic passing battle, the worried online bettor can rest assured that the 44.5 O/U is about to get blown out of the water.
As much as Peyton Manning will have a field day against this secondary, the Saints have enough up front to pressure the passer and stuff the young Addai who does not have any reliable back to spell him in this game. The Saints can also control the clock much better with two efficient and well rested tailbacks.
Drew Brees and the Saints are simply too well rounded for a Colts defense that has too many question marks. The front four is depleted, they still can’t stop the run and Bob Sanders simply can’t stop this team all by himself. The Colts may be the defending champs, but you can bet that the Saints are about to show everyone why last year was no fluke.
Put your money where your mouth is as we kickoff the NFL season opener in our NFL sporsbook.
NFL Free Pick: Saints 33, Colts 31
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