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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks
Posted on 12/18/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAA Football Betting – New Mexico Bowl Nevada at New Mexico
Dec. 22 — New Mexico Bowl Preview at Albuquerque, New Mexico (8-4) vs. Nevada (6-6), 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Nevada beat Louisiana Tech 49-10 on December 1, covering a seven-point spread at home and outgaining the Bulldogs by a whopping 641-228 margin. New Mexico last played on November 24, beating UNLV at home as a 12.5-point favorite.
ABOUT NEVADA:
The Good News — At this point, a lot of it is about freshman QB Colin Kaepernick, who stepped into the lineup after Nick Graziano got injured and looked like he had been running the Pistol offense for years, throwing 19 TD passes with just three interceptions (fifth in nation in passing efficiency). Luke Lippincott gives the Pistol just the right rushing component, plowing forward for 1380 yards. Coach Chris Ault is already enshrined in college football’s Hall of Fame.
The Bad News — Nevada’s defense ranked 71st overall, permitting 43 touchdowns and 431 yards per game. And the team gets only 31.8 net yards a punt – 108th nationally.
NEVADA TRENDS:
* NEV has covered two of its last six games
* NEV has played five of its last six games UNDER the total
* NEV is 2-4, both SU and ATS, on the road this season
* NEV has won four of its last 11 road games SU
ABOUT NEW MEXICO:
The Good News — Head coach Rocky Long has always been known as a good defensive strategist. He plays a 3-3-5 alignment that is difficult for many teams to prepare for. Running back Rodney Ferguson has gained 1177 yards. Kicker John Sullivan has hit 26 of 29 field goals.
The Bad News — The Lobos have scored only 23 offensive touchdowns. Ferguson’s 4 ypc is not awe-inspiring. QB Donovan Porterie (13 TD’s, 8 INT’s) does not bring a lot of explosiveness to the table.
NEW MEXICO TRENDS:
* NEW MEX has covered one of its last six games
* NEW MEX has won eight of its last 11 games SU
* NEW MEX has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
* NEW MEX is 5-1 SU at home this season
* NEW MEX is 2-3 ATS at home this season
* NEW MEX is 6-6 ATS in its last 12 home games
THE BOTTOM LINE: Nevada clearly was a different offensive team when Kaepernick stepped into the lineup. He is a future Heisman Trophy candidate, and does the job with his legs as well, having gained 567 yards rushing this season. The Wolf Pack has a big edge in offensive balance, and can put the ball in the end zone (36 ppg) while New Mexico’s offense is often slowed by Porterie’s inconsistencies. This is a game where the Lobos may have to trade points, and they are ill-equipped to do so. Although it comes in with just a 6-6 record, this team believes that, with losses to Boise State and Hawaii, both by two points, that could have easily gone the other way, they deserve to be in the post-season. And the post-season is a place New Mexico has not performed under Long, losing the last four bowl appearances both straight-up and against the number, most recently on this field against San Jose State last December.
New Mexico Bowl Free Pick:
Even though this is essentially a home game for New Mexico, we’ll gladly grab the points with Nevada, the three-point underdog in the Top Sportsbooks NCAA college football betting odds.
WHAT: The New Mexico Bowl
WHO: Nevada Wolf Pack (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. New Mexico Lobos (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: December 22, 4:30 PM EST at University Stadium in Albuquerque (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: NEW MEXICO -3, Total: 60.5
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