Minnesota vs. Indiana Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/4/2007 3:20:18 PM
College Football Odds – Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers
The University of Minnesota, a substandard NCAA football betting proposition this season, already faces a must-win situation to keep alive any hope of returning to the post-season. Minnesota takes on Indiana’s Hoosiers in Bloomington, in a Big Ten game slated for a noon start (ET) on Saturday. The betting line at BetUS has Indiana at -14.
Indiana is coming off a big 38-20 win at Iowa, which came as a 9.5-point underdog. The Hoosiers are now 4-1 SU (straight-up) and 2-1 ATS (against the spread) this season, with the only loss coming a couple of weeks ago at the hands of vastly-improved Illinois (27-14 score).
Minnesota is 1-4 straight-up and 1-3-1 ATS, with the only cover coming last week against Ohio State. The Gophers lost 30-7 to OSU, getting 24 points. The lone straight-up win was over Miami of Ohio, where Minnesota won 41-35 but did not cover the eight-point spread.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD trends
* Minnesota has won three of the last four meetings straight-up
* Minnesota has covered six of the last eight meetings.
* The last two in the series have gone over the total
* In five of the last six meetings, Minnesota has scored over 40 points.
This is also the fifth straight game in this series that will take place on artificial turf. Last year, Minnesota gained 541 yards en route to a 63-26 win, easily covering the six-point spread.
Minnesota has been outgained by the opponent in four of its five games. In the other game, against banged-up Miami of Ohio, each team had 577 yards. Minnesota has big problems on defense, surrendering 532 yards and just a shade under 37 points a contest. The Gophers have allowed their opponents to convert 48% on third down, and the team has turned the ball over 18 times (including eight fumbles), accounting for a -13 figure in that department. Quarterback Adam Weber has thrown ten interceptions, the second highest total in the country. Also….
* Minnesota has gone over the total in six of its last seven games
* Minnesota has covered just two of its last 7 games on the road, winning just one of those outright
* Minnesota is 4-8 ATS in its last dozen games as a road underdog
Indiana leads the nation with 27 quarterback sacks, compared to just three for Minnesota. They also rank seventh in the country with 45 tackles for loss. The Hoosiers have only allowed nine sacks on offense. That has benefited QB Kellen Lewis, who has thrown 14 TD passes with five INT’s, ranking 27th in the nation in passing efficiency. Also…
* Indiana has won four of its last six games at home
* This is only the 8th time since 2003 that Indiana has been favored
Minnesota, the 14-point underdog in the betting odds at BetUS, has had the edge in recent head-to-head history.
Free Pick: Indiana may have the overall technical edge, and they certainly have a big advantage on defense.
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