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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAA Football Sportsbooks
Posted on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAA Football Betting – Capital One Bowl Michigan at Florida
Jan. 1 — Capital One Bowl Preview at Orlando, Fla., Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3), 1 p.m. (ABC)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Michigan lost in its big rivalry game with Ohio State by a score of 14-3, and was outgained by the embarrassing margin of 279-91. Florida romped over Florida State 45-12, easily covering as a 14-point home favorite.
LAST MEETING: These teams last met on January 1, 2003 in the Outback Bowl. Michigan, the 1.5-point favorite, beat Florida 38-30.
ABOUT MICHIGAN:
The Good News — The Wolverines responded after losses to Appalachian State and Oregon with eight straight wins, in the process getting back into the national rankings, before losing the last two to Wisconsin and Ohio State. Michigan gave up only 23 touchdowns on defense. And QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart, both of whom lost time with injuries, should be healthy after resting for a while.
The Bad News — While Rich Rodriguez has been hired away from West Virginia to eventually take the Michigan head coaching job, Lloyd Carr is lingering around for the bowl game.
ABOUT FLORIDA:
The Good News — Tim Tebow, the Heisman winner, threw 29 TD passes and ran for 838 yards and 22 more touchdowns. Percy Harvin is a tremendous all-around threat, and chalked up 781 yards receiving. They led a Florida offense that averaged 43 points a game and posted 51 ppg in its last four to end the season. The Gators were tough against the run, permitting only 99 yards per game.
The Bad News — Florida could be exploited by efficient opposition passers. The Gators gave up 249 passing yards a contest, ranking them only 86th best in the country.
Here are some college football betting TRENDS relative to this matchup:
* FLA has covered six of its last seven games
* FLA has won 16 of its last 19 games SU
* FLA has played six OVERS in its last seven games
* MICH has covered seven of its last nine games as an underdog
THE BOTTOM LINE: When Lloyd Carr brought his team to the Rose Bowl to play USC last season, the Wolverines looked like they were operating in quicksand. It would stand to reason that Carr (4-8 ATS in bowl games) will once again be roundly out-coached, this time by Urban Meyer, who has won and covered his four bowl appearances. Florida came on like gangbusters offensively toward the end, and Tebow’s versatility should drive Michigan nuts. UM’s Mario Manningham may indeed be the best receiver on the field, but it should be noted that in the 91-yard non-effort against Ohio State, Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Manningham were all present and accounted for. Florida, which yielded just three yards a carry to opponents, can put a halt to Hart and the Michigan run attack. And there is little evidence to suggest Henne will follow in the footsteps of former Maize and Blue signal-caller Tom Brady.
Capital One Bowl Free Pick:
FLORIDA has the firepower needed to pull away from this opponent. Lay it with the Gators, the 11.5-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks college football betting odds.
WHAT: Capital One Bowl
WHO: Michigan Wolverines (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (9-3 SU, 8-3 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: January 1, 1 PM ET at Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: FLORIDA 11.5, Total: 59
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