Miami vs. Florida St Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/18/2007 8:14:48 AM
College Football Betting – Miami vs Florida St.
Our top sportsbook – BetUS college football betting odds: Florida State –6, Total: 41
Few rivalries in the last 25 years have been as intense or dramatic as the one that has existed between the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida State Seminoles. In eight of the last 25 meetings, one of the two teams was #1 in the country when the two met. This is not as important any more on the bigger scale, and in fact, these two members of the Sunshine State’s “Big Three” have had to take a back seat to South Florida’s insurgency this season. But there is still plenty of bad blood for this matchup, which is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday on the grass field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. In the Top Sportsbooks college football betting odds, Florida State is listed at -6 with an over/under figure of 41 points.
Miami is 4-3 SU (straight-up) and 2-5 ATS (against the spread), playing four of their seven games under the total. Last week Miami gave up 264 rushing yards to Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl and lost a 17-14 decision as a 2.5-point favorite. It was the third straight pointspread loss for the Hurricanes, all of them as a favorite. Florida State is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, playing four of its six games under the posted total. After dropping the season opener to Clemson, the ‘Noles had reeled off four straight wins but lost last Thursday night to defending ACC champion Wake Forest by a 24-21 count, losing straight-up as the five-point favorite.
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD NCAA football betting trends:
* Miami has covered six of the last nine meetings
* Miami has won six of the last eight meetings SU
* Miami has covered four of the last five meetings in Tallahassee
* The last five meetings have gone under the total
* The last six meetings have been decided by a total of 23 points
In last year’s meeting, Florida State, a four-point underdog, won a 13-10 verdict in what was a defensive battle, to say the least. The two teams combined for THREE net rushing yards and 310 yards of total offense overall.
Miami head coach Randy Shannon has had a rough first season. His team lost 33-27 to former Hurricane coach Butch Davis and his North Carolina squad two weeks ago, and with games against nationally-ranked Virginia, Boston College and Virginia Tech still to come, is in danger of missing out on a bowl game. Miami QB Kyle Wright is ranked 20th nationally in passing efficiency, but has thrown eight interceptions to go with his nine touchdowns. The ‘Canes average 23.7 points per game, and give up 20.6. They are ranked 95th in total offense and 25th in total defense. In passing efficiency defense, a category Miami has usually been among the best, the team is just 72nd. Also:
* Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games
* Miami has lost its last five road games SU
* Miami has played 17 of its last 25 road games under the total
* Miami has played 14 of its last 18 overall games under the total
Florida State is averaging 22.8 ppg while giving up 17.8 ppg. Its opponents have had to gain 18.7 yards per point, which is a strong figure. The Seminoles are yielding just 3.2 yards per rush, as compared with 4.2 for Miami. FSU ranks 19th in the nation in rushing defense, 15th in scoring defense and 24th in total defense. The team is also fourth in the country in tackles for a loss, chalking up 9.3 per game. However, even with a new offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, FSU’s rushing game hasn’t caught fire – they average just 108 yards a game, which ranks 102nd in the nation. At quarterback, FSU will be giving a third straight starting assignment to Xavier Lee (57%, 5 TD, 3 INT). Also:
* FSU is 4-1 SU in its last five home games
* FSU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games
* FSU has played five of its last seven home games under the total
Free Pick: Well, Miami can’t cover on the road and Florida State can’t cover at home. One thing the technical trends do point to, however, is a total under the 41 that is posted in the Top Sportsbooks betting line, especially considering the last four games between these two have registered just 96 points combined.
(Charles Jay of TotalActionExtra.com still has some of that college spirit. He is a regular contributor to the Top Sportsbooks Locker Room)
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