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Posted on 12/29/2007 11:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Football Wagering – Detroit (+ 4) vs. Green Bay (- 4)
What’s funny about this game is that the Packers will, without a doubt, rest their starters. Odds-makers are pretty much saying that we, as NFL bettors, have no faith in the Detroit Lions to pull an upset at Lambeau Field.
I can’t guy that. The Lions should have enough fire-power to do serious damage to the Packers’ second-string defense, but before I get into that, here are some trends:
The Detroit Lions are 2 and 7 against the spread in their last 9 games on grass.
The Detroit Lions are 4-11-1 against the spread in their last 16 games versus a team from the NFC North.
The Green Bay Packers are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games overall.
The trends say Green Bay, but I’m saying Detroit. The Lions started this season with high expectations and looked like they were going to meet those expectations by going 4 and 1 in their first 5 games.
John Kitna was throwing well, Roy Williams was catching everything in sight, and the Lions’ D was playing well above its talent level. Unfortunately, it was the Packers who did a “reverse-trend” and started beating up on the rest of the NFC.
The Lions fell apart in every single category. They had one of the most extreme collapses in recent NFL memory, actually, dropping six straight games at one point before getting a win last week versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
What are the chances of the Lions getting two wins in a row? Actually, pretty good since the only thing scarier to the Packers than going into the playoffs off of two straight losses is an injury to Brett Favre.
I doubt Favre will take more than a handful of snaps in this game. If he does, then Packer’ coach Mike McCarthey will be playing with fire. That could spell doom for the Packers’ playoff chances. So, I suspect to see a lot of Aaron Rodgers.
Of course, Rodgers is good enough to get the Pack to cover in this game, but I have to believe that the Lions’ will go into this game with a lot of heart. They know that they are a few players away from being a very, very good NFL team. Expect Lions’ to show the rest of the NFL that this Sunday.
The NFL betting line is Detroit Lions + 4 against the spread on the road versus the Green Bay Packers.
NFL Free Pick: I like the Lions in this game.
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