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NCAA Football Betting – Orange Bowl Kansas at Virginia Tech
Jan. 3 — Orange Bowl Preview at Miami, Kansas (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2), 8 p.m. (FOX)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Kansas went into the season finale undefeated but lost to Missouri 36-28 as a 1.5-point favorite. Missouri burned the Jayhawks for 519 yards in that one. Virginia Tech won the ACC title and got revenge for an earlier loss at the same time with a 30-16 win over Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite on a neutral field.
The Good News — Kansas was second nationally, scoring 44.3 points a game. They were also fourth in scoring defense, allowing only 16 points per contest. Kansas leads the nation with a +19 turnover margin and is sixth in defending the run, yielding 91.4 yards a game and 3.1 yards a carry. Todd Reesing was the ninth leading passer in the country, with 32 TD’s and only six INT’s.
The Bad News — With only 21 sacks, the Jayhawks are only so-so at getting to the passer. And the bloated statistics may be, to a considerable extent, a reflection of a VERY weak non-conference schedule (Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, Florida International).
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH:
The Good News — Virginia Tech ranked just ahead of Kansas (5th) in rushing defense, giving up 2.75 yards a carry and 86 yards a game. the Hokies were also fourth in pass efficiency defense and fifth in total defense (yards per game). Only Ohio State allowed less points per contest. Sean Glennon re-established himself as a viable quarterback in the season’s second half, and threw just one interception in his last nine games.
The Bad News — There were offensive line problems. VT allowed 49 quarterback sacks and priduced a running game that averaged only 3.4 yards an attempt. Brandon Ore, the feature back, has had only one 100-yard game.
Here are some college football betting TRENDS relative to this matchup:
* KAN has covered 14 of its last 16 games
* KAN has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* VT has won and covered its last five games
* VT is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games away form home
* VT has played three of its last four games OVER the total
* VT has covered two of its last six bowl games
THE BOTTOM LINE: Kansas did not exactly run wild against any solid defense it faced, and in Virginia Tech it could be encountering its finest defensive opponent yet. Against Missouri, Colorado and Texas A&M, Reesing had three TD’s and two INT’s. Against the rest of the schedule, his ratio was 29-4. KU had just 42 net rushing yards in it sbiggest test against Mizzou. Virginia Tech got shellshocked early against LSU (give me a few points with them NOW), but came on to win and cover the last five, four of those against teams that went to a bowl. It was encouraging to see Sean Glennon re-emerging as an effective QB for Virginia Tech. Brandon Ore doesn’t have to be dominant; he only has to provide a little balance. Throw in a little “Beamer Ball” on special teams, and you’ve got a recipe for victory.
Orange Bowl Free Pick:
We lay the points with Virginia Tech, the 4.5-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks college football betting odds.
WHAT: Orange Bowl
WHO: Kansas Jayhawks (11-1 SU, 10-1 ATS) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: January 3, 8 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium in Miami (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: VIRGINIA TECH -4.5, Total: 53
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