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Posted on 11/30/2007 1:34:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Football Wagering – New York vs. Miami
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The Miami Dolphins (0-11 SU, 3-6-2 ATS), who were just 17 seconds away from taking a scoreless tie into overtime against Pittsburgh last week, will once again try to post their first win of the season when they take on an old nemesis, the New York Jets (2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) at Dolphin Stadium in Miami (grass) on Sunday. Game time is 1 PM ET. In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, Miami is listed at -1 with the total posted at 38 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* JETS are 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
* JETS have won six of the last seven meetings SU
* Four of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* JETS have covered eight of their last nine games at Miami
* MIA is 0-4 ATS at home this season
* MIA has covered nine of its last 36 home games
* JETS have played four of their last six games UNDER the total
* JETS have covered one of their last six road games
The Dolphins are a team that really isn’t as horrible as its record. Losing six games by a field goal means they’ve been within reach on numerous occasions. Coach Cam Cameron, in his first season, certainly finds himself with a dilemma, though; he doesn’t want to finish out this season winless, yet he wants to lay some kind of foundation for the future. That involves handing the quarterback job over to rookie second-round pick John Beck, who is gutsy, and will pay dividends down the road, but still learning the ropes (51% and no TD’s yet, 5.4 yds/attempt). Ted Ginn (15 catches) may yet turn into a bright spot as well, but Miami got very banged up at the running back spot against the Steelers, with Ricky Williams knocked out for the rest of the year and Jesse Chatman having to now play with a neck injury and a bad ankle.
Miami has scored just 27 points in its last four games, and has converted just 38% of the time on third down. Of course, the defense has kept them in ballgames, as over that same four-game span it has allowed just 46 points. Kellen Clemens is another QB who is still learning on the job (49%, 3 TD, 6 INT’s), and Eric Mangini is intent on finding out whether he can be a part of the team’s future. These teams combined for a 31-28 score earlier in the season, but in that one the Dolphins had the services of QB Trent Green, RB Ronnie Brown and WR Chris Chambers, all of whom are out of the picture. And of course, Clemens is the new guy in for Chad Pennington, who completed 15 of 22 with two TD’s in that first meeting.
Based on the series history, a nod has to be given to the Jets, since Miami has shown no ability to even cover at its own ballpark, much less carry things as a favorite. But with Miami doing some encouraging things on defense, we also see a low-scoring game as an inevitability. that’s why we’ll point to “under” 38 points, the figure posted in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
NFL betting odds: MIAMI -1, Total 38
NOTABLE STAT: Miami has scored 27 points in its last four games
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jets are 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 38 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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