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Posted on 01/04/2008 12:20 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Football Playoff Betting – Jacksonville vs. Pittsburgh
Preview Most betting investors would look at this matchup, see a rookie head coach, a team without its starting tailback and bet heavily against the home dogs. But is that truly the case? No team is hotter than the Jacksonville Jaguars right now, but David Garrard is still in his first true year as a starter, and Jack Del Rio has never had any true success as a head coach in the playoffs. The odds may be against Pittsburgh, but the last time they were this team won the Superbowl. While that may be a longshot this year, a win against the Jaguars is not nearly as daunting a task as the betting community believes.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
The Steelers ended up with the number one defense in the league by season’s end, stifling opponents to 89.9 rushing yards and 176.5 passing yards. But without their defensive-end Aaron Smith, the Steelers simply do not look like the same defense that resembled the resurgent Steel Curtain of 2007.
Making matters worse is that, without Aaron Smith, the Steelers have gave up 224 yards to the Jags in Week 15 and 180 yards to the lowly Ravens in Week 17. The Jaguars are the second best rushing team in the league, and certainly the best rushing team in the playoffs. They average 149.4 rushing yards per game, and Pittsburgh will have trouble containing Fred Taylor and Mojo on the edges without Aaron Smith.
David Garrard will once again be free to dump the ball off to his listless band of receivers (sorry, but I refuse to get excited about Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams or Matt Jones) because the Steelers will be forced to bring up eight in to the box to try and stop the run. Garrard threw for a 102.2 passer rating on the season, with 2,509 pass yards, 18 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His inability to make mistakes will help the Jags stay the course as they assault an injury-depleted Pittsburgh defense with a well-balanced, and conservative, offensive attack.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
With Willie Parker sidelined, and those around the NFL bettors finally realizing that Najeh Davenport is not a suitable replacement, the Steelers will be forced to the air. Big Ben Roethlisberger and his talented band of pass-catchers average only 192.2 passing yards through the air on average. The problem here is that when Roethlisberger has had more than thirty attempts, the Steelers have gone 3-4 SU.
Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller will have trouble breaking open against a stiff and violent secondary that holds opponents to 213.8 pass yards per game while delivering some bone-crushing hits. I don’t doubt Big Ben’s ability to move this offense up and down the field, but there will be too many defenders in zone-coverage for Big Ben to find the seams.
The saving grace here is that Jacksonville will most likely gameplan for a heavy dose of Big Ben, freeing up lanes for Davenport. No, he is not an answer to the rushing void left by Parker, but he is a proven vet who runs north-south. Despite a shortened load, Davenport averaged 4.7 yards per carry. The Jags huge front line will be difficult for Davenport to run against. they silence rushers to only 100.1 rushing yards per game.
NFL Betting Trends
-Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
-Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
-Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS when playing Pittsburgh
-Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
-total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games against Jacksonville
Final Verdict
Usually it’s hard to bet against the Steelers at home, but this matchup is a tough one for the home town dogs. Everyone keeps acting like they were blown out by the Jags in Week 15, but it was only a one-score loss. That being said, Jacksonville proved that they can bang with the Steelers in cold weather games on the terrible turf of Heinz Field.
The passionate betting investor may want to bank on the success of the Steelers and Big Ben in the playoffs, but this is a tough matchup to take against the Steelers. The safe bet is with the Jags tearing up Heinz Field with a steel-plowing rushing attack.
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Saturday, January 5th — Heinz Field, Pittsburgh — 8:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Jacksonville -1 (37.)
NFL Playoff Free Pick: Jacksonville 24 Pittsburgh 20
> > Check The Wildcard Playoff Odds Here
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