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NFL Wagering – Jacksonville (9-4) at Pittsburgh (9-4)
While the Pittsburgh Steelers were handed a thorough ‘Smackdown’ by the New England Patriots last week – losing 34-13 after shooting off their collective mouths – they enter their final home regular season game with a perfect 7-0 record at Heinz Field that they will be looking to keep that way against a feisty Jacksonville team that has won four of their last five.
The Steelers, (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 5-8 O/U) are ranked 14th in overall offense, averaging 333.3 yards and 23.8 points per game but still have the league’s No. 1 overall defense, allowing a miniscule 245.5 yards and 14.5 points per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS, 8-4-1 O/U) are ranked 10th in overall offense, averaging 344.6 yards and 23.5 points per game. The Jaguars are ranked 17th in overall defense, allowing 330.7 yards and 17.6 points per game.
The Jaguars have gotten a spectacular season from starting quarterback David Garrard who has thrown for 2,113 yards and 13 touchdowns with just one interception in the 10 games he’s played. Garrard’s 103.3 quarterback rating is third in the NFL.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and free NFL Betting odds.
Key Jaguars Trends
The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five games on grass.
The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Key Steelers Trends
The Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a S.U. loss.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last five games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Over is 6-0 in Jaguars last six games as a road underdog.
The Under is 4-0 in Steelers last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Over is 5-0 in Steelers last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
The Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
The Under is 8-3 in the last eleven meetings.
Analysis: While I like the Steelers to keep their home record perfect with a win here against the Jaguars, I think this game has the look and feel of a ‘field-goal game.’ I say the win goes to the Steelers but the cover goes to the Jags.
NFL Betting Free Picks: Jaguars +3.5 Points/Under 36.5 Points
01:00 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars +3½ -110
Pittsburgh Steelers -3½ -110
Over 36½ -110
Under 36½ -110
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