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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks Posted on 11/15/2007 10:25 PM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
College Football Betting – Hawaii at Nevada
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WHO: Hawaii Rainbows (9-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Nevada Wolf Pack (5-4 SU, 3-5 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: Friday, 11 PM ET at Mackay Stadium (FieldTurf – artificial) in Reno — Televised by ESPN2
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: Hawaii -7.5
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Hawaii beat Fresno State 37-30 last Saturday night, but did not cover as a 19-point home favorite. Nevada is off a bye week, but two weeks ago the Wolf Pack narrowly escaped by a 40-38 score against New Mexico State, winning but not covering as a 6.5-point favorite on the road.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* NEVADA has covered four of the last six meetings
* The home team has won seven consecutive games SU in the series
* The home team has covered eight of the last nine meetings
* Four of the last five meetings has gone OVER the total
* All games in this series (11 total) have been decided by at least seven points
LAST MEETING: Hawaii won at Aloha Stadium, 41-34, failing to cover as a 13.5-point favorite. In that game, Nevada QB Jeff Rowe was benched, and his backup Travis Moore led a comeback that gave the Wolf Pack a chance to win.
The Good News — Hawaii averages 50 points a game, tops in the country. Colt Brennan is one of the nation’s best quarterbacks, playing in one of the nation’s most productive offensive systems. last week he was 29-for-39 against Fresno State, for 396 yards and two TD’s. On the season he has 28 TD passes. The defense is fourth in the country in sacking the quarterback. Hawaii, one of two unbeaten teams in the country, is rated #12 in the USA today poll and #13 in the AP poll.
The Bad News — Brennan had to leave the Fresno State game in the fourth quarter with a concussion. The Rainbows are not in the BCS Standings, and they have to reach the top 12 if they want to compete in a BCS game. Part of the reason they’ve been snubbed – their seven Division 1-A foes thus far have a record of 20-45. Hawaii does not run the ball much; they average just 80 yards a game. The Rainbows are just 114th in net punting.
* HAWAII is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games
* HAWAII has won its last five road games SU
* HAWAII has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
The Good News — Nevada coach Chris Ault had been looking for someone to helm the Pistol offense after the graduation of Jeff Rowe. He has finally found that guy in freshman Colin Kaepernick, the nation’s 10th-ranked QB who has completed 56% of his passes for 13 TD’s and run for 465 yards and five more scores. Nevada also ranks 11th in the nation in rushing, with over 231 yards a game.
The Bad News — Nevada does not play sound defense, ranking just 85th in the country in giving up 417 yards a game. The Wolf Pack has just five interceptions on the season and has yielded five yards a rushing attempt, although the latter statistic probably won’t mean much here.
* NEVADA has covered just one of its last five games
* NEVADA is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games
* NEVADA has won 13 of its last 15 home games SU
* NEVADA is on a 12-2 ATS run as a home favorite
* NEVADA is 15-7 ATS in conference games since 2005
NCAAF Free Picks:
Hawaii has had some close calls, especially when going on the road. The Rainbows have had to go to overtime in visiting Louisiana Tech and San Jose State – two teams that weren’t in their class. And last week Hawaii seemed to do their best to make the game with Fresno close when they should have been out to impress the pollsters. Nevada’s Pistol is potent when it is managed well, and freshman Colin Kaepernick is a fantastic talent – a rare combination of foot speed and rocket arm that will make him a star. Nevada is very tough to beat in Reno, and offers Hawaii by far its biggest test to date. If Brennan is still a little shaken up from last week, it points us even stronger toward Nevada, the 7.5 point underdog in the Top Sportsbooks college football betting odds.
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