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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks Posted on 11/07/2007 9:25:22 PM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAA Football Betting – Air Force at Notre Dame
ABOUT FRESNO STATE:
The Good News — With one win in its last three games, the Bulldogs can pretty much seal up a bowl bid, if they don’t have one clinched already. Fresno State has played well on special teams, ranking third nationally in kickoff returns, ninth in punt returns, and 36th in net punting. They have also averaged 197 rushing yards a game.
The Bad News — The Bulldogs have not been able to stop talented offenses. Nevada gained 702 yards; Oregon had 457, and Boise State 440. Ryan Mathews (751 rushing yards on 6.2 ypc) and leading receiver Bear Pascoe are likely to be game-time decisions after injuries.
FRESNO STATE TRENDS:
* FRESNO has won five of its last six games SU
* FRESNO is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games
* FRESNO has played six OVERS in its last seven road games
* FRESNO is 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten games as a dog
ABOUT HAWAII:
The Good News — Hawaii should be relatively well-rested, having played just once in the last 23 days. It is conceivable (though a longshot) that when the ball is kicked off, Hawaii could be the nation’s only unbeaten team. The Rainbows are rated #12 in the USA Today poll and #14 in the AP poll. QB Colt Brennan is still alive in the Heisman Trophy race, completing 68.6% of his passes for 2820 yards and 26 touchdowns.
The Bad News — Brennan has been battling ankle problems for most of the year, and has thrown 11 interceptions on short of last year’s total. Hawaii, despite its unbeaten record, is not ranked among the top 25 BCS teams. Hawaii doesn’t really run the ball, averaging just over 73 yards a game.
HAWAII TRENDS:
* HAWAII is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite
* HAWAII is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 laying double digits at home
* HAWAII is 13-8 ATS in the WAC since 2005
WHO: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Hawaii Rainbows (8-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: Saturday, Midnight ET, Aloha Stadium (artificial turf) in Honolulu (Televised by ESPN 2)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: Hawaii -17.5 (Total 72)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Fresno State beat Utah State last Saturday by the score of 38-27 but failed to cover as a 20.5-point favorite. Hawaii last played on October 27, beating New Mexico State 50-13 and covering as a 20.5-point favorite.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* HAWAII has covered six of the last eight meetings
* HAWAII has won four of the last six meetings SU
* HAWAII has covered four of the last five meetings in Honolulu
* The last five meetings have been decided by an average of 28 ppg
* The favorite has covered the last four meetings
* FRESNO ST. holds the overall series advantage at 20-18-1 SU
LAST MEETING: Last year, Hawaii, as a four-point road favorite, scored a 68-37 win at Fresno behind 470 passing yards from Colt Brennan.
Free NCAAF Pick
THE BOTTOM LINE: Hawaii, the team with a lot of rest, has to have the mindset that it will run up the score if it gets the chance, because of its snub in the BCS standings and the relatively low ranking in the major polls. Of course, a subsequent game with Boise State will give all of that a shot to improve, but the Rainbows seize the opportunity here and add as many points as they can at the end in an attempt to impress the voters, who have a share of the BCS process. We will lay the points with Hawaii, the 17.5-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks college football betting odds.
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