UFC Raleigh: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Michael Chiesa Pick
Ready for Free UFC Raleigh: Dos Anjos vs. Chiesa Pick and betting odds & predictions? Here is a full breakdown of the leadup, what to expect during the fight, and some logical outcomes.
Event: UFC Raleigh
Date: January 25th, 2020
Time: Main Card: 8 P.M. EST.
Location: PNC Arena, Raleigh, North Carolina
Broadcast: PPV on ESPN+
Main Event: Rafael Dos Anjos (-260) vs. Michael Chiesa (+210)
Dos Anjos and Chiesa are in the co-main event slot for the first ESPN+ card of 2020. Both men are fairly new to welterweight division and have had their fair share of success at the division.
Dos Anjos made his 170 pound debut in 2017 and won his first three fights at the division which put him in line for an interim championship against Colby Covington. He lost that fight and became somewhat of a gatekeeper for the 170 pound division as the UFC fed him the young lions of the division.
After losing to Covington, he lost to current champion Kamaru Usman. He then beat Kevin Lee which most recently put him in line for a ESPN+ headliner, which he lost against Leon Edwards.
Chiesa, on the other hand, has enjoyed more success at 170 pounds than at lightweight. Before moving to 170, he lost to Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis both by submission.
Realizing he needed to do something to save his career and life in the UFC, he moved to welterweight where he has won both of his fights against former champion Carlos Condit and Ultimate Fighter legend Diego Sanchez.
He has enjoyed a professional revival and looks to continue his success against a heavy favorite in Rafael Dos Anjos.
I truly wish this was in the main event slot. The chances that Blaydes and Dos Santos go the distance is slight but if this fight were slated for five rounds, that would add another layer of awesomeness to it.
Dos Anjos has lost three of his last four fights, so it is somewhat puzzling to understand how he is such a heavy favorite. The oddsmakers don’t seem to recognize just how good Chiesa has looked at 170 pounds.
Whether they are undervaluing Chiesa or overvaluing Dos Anjos, I think this line is way too inflated.
As for the fight, both fighters have similar skillsets. 2 of Dos Anjos’ last 3 wins are by submission and 3 of Chiesa’s last 4 wins are by submission.
I don’t know if this will be two grapplers standing up and displaying underwhelming striking or if this fight will actually hit the mat. Both men like to change levels and work in the clinch on the ground. This fight will be contingent on who lands more takedowns and who can stuff the opposition’s takedowns.
Rizz’s MMA Betting Trends/Statistics
- In his UFC career, Dos Anjos is 12-3 SU as a favorite
- In his UFC career, Chiesa is 3-2 SU as an underdog
- All three of Dos Anjos’ welterweight losses have been by decision
- Chiesa is looking to extend his win streak to 3, which he has done once before in the UFC
- Chiesa’s last four losses are all by stoppage
- Dos Anjos’ hasn’t won after a loss since 2014
- Chiesa is 1-1 in the UFC following a decision win
MMA Betting UFC 246 Pick: Michael Chiesa
I understand how skilled Dos Anjos is, but I cant get behind him being a -260 favorite. I think Chiesa has looked really good at 170 pounds and is hard to deny at this point. Him being an underdog and especially an underdog of that magnitude feels like stealing candy from a baby. I think he can outwrestle Dos Anjos and wins by a very narrow split decision.