UFC 246 McGregor vs. Cowboy Pick
Ready for McGregor vs. Cowboy Free UFC 246 Pick and betting odds & predictions? Here is a full breakdown of the leadup, what to expect during the fight, and some logical outcomes.
Event: UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Date: January 18th, 2020
Time: Main Card: 10 P.M. EST.
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Broadcast: PPV on ESPN+
Main Event: Conor McGregor vs. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone
McGregor and Cowboy will headline UFC 246, the first UFC pay per view event of 2020, on January 18th in a five round, non-title bout. McGregor didn’t have a fight in 2019 due to a lengthy suspension, outside octagon issues, and contract disputes.
Cerrone, on the other hand, had an extremely active 2019. He started the year 2-0, but lost his last two bouts of 2019 against devastating lightweights Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje.
This very fight was negotiated for UFC 239 in July, but never came to fruition due to McGregor declining to fight in a co-main event slot. They will share a 25 minute dance on January 18th that will put the winner in line for yet another massive bout.
The interesting facet of this fight is it is being contested at 170 pounds. Both McGregor and Cerrone have had brief stints at welterweight, but both of their natural fighting weights are at 155 pounds. Who does this favor?
Well, Cerrone had some of his best contests at 170 pounds. McGregor is only 1-1 at 170 pounds and the win was via a very narrow split decision over Nate Diaz. However, with an extra 15 pounds, McGregor should be heavier to takedown making this fight less susceptible to go to the ground.
Cerrone is the better wrestler of the two but if this fight stays on the feet, McGregor undoubtedly has the upper hand.
Expect McGregor to start fast here and make good reads early. Cerrone is known as a slow starter and usually does his damage in the ladder part of the fight. McGregor should study Cerrone’s fight against Gaethje and see what happened there.
Gaethje made good reads, set fakes early and dropped Cerrone in the last minute of the first round. Unless Cerrone implements a heavy, effective kickboxing gameplan, this matchup favors McGregor.
Rizz’s MMA Betting Trends/Statistics
- McGregor has not lost consecutive MMA bouts through his professional career
- Throughout his UFC career, McGregor is 8-1 SU when favored
- Throughout his UFC career, Cerrone is 6-7 SU as an underdog
- Cerrone lost by stoppage in his last two fights as an underdog
- The last time Cerrone fought coming off back to back losses, he lost by first round KO.
- Coming off a first round loss, Cerrone is 3-0
MMA Betting UFC 246 Pick: Conor McGregor
Cerrone withstands McGregor’s storm early, but not for long. This fight stays on the feet and eventually ends in the middle rounds by way of technical knockout by the notorious one. If Cerrone can withstand the storm, which is a big if, this fight going the distance at +350 has extreme value.
A time prop I am leaning towards heavily is this fight to start the third round at +115. If you like Cerrone here, him by submission at +650 has value. The UFC wants (and somewhat needs) McGregor to win this fight and I think he will do just that. Tell your kids we are going to the moon, we will be back soon.