UFC 263 Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori
Ready for Adesanya vs. Vettori Free UFC 263 Pick and betting odds & predictions? Here is a full breakdown of the leadup, what to expect during the fight, and some logical outcomes.
Event: UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori
Date: June 12th, 2021
Time: Main Card: 7 P.M. PST.
Location: Gila River Arena, Glendale, Arizona
Broadcast: PPV on ESPN+
Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
Saturday night will determine the UFC Middleweight Champion of the world. On one end of the octagon will be Israel Adesanya, the most decorated striker in the UFC. On the other will be Marvin Vettori, a grinding unrelenting fighter who may have developed the perfect style to capture UFC gold.
Israel (Stylebender) Adesanya (-250)
Israel Adesanya is arguably the best striker in the world. Elusive, lightning-quick, and precise; Israel Adesanya has never been bested at 185 in his MMA career, and he has gone (9-1-0) in the UFC. Israel’s pure striking ability and MENSA-level fight IQ have resulted in him having more offensive weapons than Jon Jones’s glove box. With performances that blur the line between art and sport, he knocks out opponents with both hands, with both feet, and he can do it from both stances. He sets up his strikes perfectly, lays traps inconspicuously, and he punishes his opponents with surgical precision.
Israel has a higher striking differential than any other UFC middleweight, landing 1.77 strikes for every strike absorbed. He also has the 2nd highest knockdown rate in the division, knocking down his opponents an average of 1.2 times per 15 minutes. Meanwhile, despite having almost two and a half hours of octagon time in his UFC career, Marvin Vettori has only been able to knock down an opponent once.
When it comes to striking, Israel is a virtuoso. He threatens his opponents with attacks of so many different varieties, and he feints his opponents so incessantly and convincingly, that they have trouble differentiating up from down, let alone what kind of strike is coming their way next. When Israel keeps the fight standing, which he does often with his ridiculous 86.5% takedown defense rate, his opponents often find themselves being put into a blunt force trauma-induced coma.
Marvin (The Italian Dream) Vettori (+200)
If you could design a fighter with the perfect style to defeat Israel Adesanya, what would you create? Ideally, you would create a fighter who is very difficult to hit on the feet to negate Adesanya’s ranged attacks, and you would create a fighter with phenomenal takedowns to put Israel in the only position he is uncomfortable in. You would also want to make sure that your fighter is brick wall durable so that when he does get tagged, he doesn’t do a Brendan Schaub impression.
Want to know who statistically has the highest striking defense rate and highest takedown accuracy in the middleweight division? It’s Marvin Vettori.
Marvin Vettori is half man half tank. That is if a tank mastered the art of a pull counter left straight and could wrestle for five straight rounds. Going (7-2-1) in the UFC, he has only been beaten on the scorecards, and only by close margins. Vettori is currently steamrolling the middleweight division and hasn’t lost a single fight since he fought Israel three years ago. He has only lost one round out of 17 during his five-fight winning streak. For comparison’s sake, Israel has lost eight rounds in his last five appearances, having close contests with Yoel Romeo, Kelvin Gastelum, and Jan Błachowicz.
Vettori has been blessed with the best possible setup for this fight. He embodies the only style of MMA that has proven success against Israel, and God knows he has a borderline delusional amount of confidence – something necessary when taking one of the most highly touted UFC champions of all time.
In his last fight – he fought the bargain bin version of Israel Adesanya – Kevin Holland. Vettori took Kevin down a staggering 11 times and held him down for 20 minutes out of their 25-minute bout. That is longer than all of Ben Askren’s UFC octagon time combined. Vettori has successfully taken Israel down before, he will look to do it again, and he looks much improved from three years ago.
Both fighters hit their opponents far more than they get hit. Both fighters utilize counters extremely well. Israel is light years ahead on the feet and will have a big advantage in the striking department.
Yet, Marvin Vettori is as durable as they come. Let alone never being knocked out, Marvin has never been knocked down in his entire career. That being said, Paulo Costa had only been knocked down once in his career before he was starched by Israel. Robert Whittaker had only been knocked out once before he was knocked out twice by Israel. Kelvin Gastelum had only been knocked down once until Israel put him down 4 times in their fight.
That being said, Vettori combines the durability of an M1 Abrams with the ideal style to counter Israel’s game. The odds are stacked against him but Marvin has a good chance at finding success in this matchup.
Regardless, my gambling is beyond control so I’m cashing in my parents’ 401k and putting it on Israel Adesanya.
I’m calling an Israel Adesanya win via paralyzing feints followed up by strikes to the dome.
MMA Betting UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya (-250)
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