Free World Cup Pick: Croatia vs. England

Looking for Croatia vs. England free picks? 2018 Russia World Cup betting sees Croatia taking on England on Wednesday July 11th, at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, Russia. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all 2018 World Cup soccer matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily soccer predictions.

Weekly World Cup Handicapping

Semi-Final
Croatia vs. England
Date: Wednesday July 11th, 2018
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Luzhniki Stadium, Moscow, Russia
World Cup Moneyline Odds: England +130, Croatia +240, Draw +220
World Cup Spread Betting Odds: England -1/2 (+135)
World Cup Betting Total: 2
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Now we are set for the semi-finals. Croatia was in this same spot 20 years ago in their very first World Cup appearance. They do not have the history of the Three Lions but they easily might be the better squad. England has been helped by the fall of some of the top nations.

Its not that they are not good but many saw this as a team in transition that might have had a chance to win it all in 2022. No time like the present I suppose.

Croatia

I don’t want to say that Croatia is lucky but it has taken back to back penalty kick shootout wins for them to advance. They were the favourites against Denmark and Russia so they have been playing with fire.

They were in better form during the Group stage but I am not sure they are not hte better team in this matchup. It looks like there is a lot of value with Croatia in this one.

Even though the match against Russia went to extra time it was clear who the better team was.   Sometimes it is just hard to put a team away and even though there was a gap in talent on the field they were playing the host team who was fighting for their lives.

Luke Modric might not have scored but he was considered the best player on the pitch and Ivan Rakitic scored the deciding penalty kick. At this sage you need your best players in top form and Croatia has that.

England

English fans are ecstatic even though there is criticism that the squad has had a very easy path to advance to this point. All we can say about this group is that they are winning the games they are supposed to.

The odds make this another one of those but I do think we are seeing some market dynamics as opposed to true odds.

Harry Kane is one of the best goal scorers in the world. For five straight seasons he has increased his numbers at Tottenham Hotspur.

As impressive as that may be his recognition will boost even higher this year as he has been the top scorer at the World Cup with six goals and counting. He will have a lot of attention thrown his way in this one.

Kane is no Messi so even though he can be lethal he is a little easier to bottle up. Second on the club in scoring is John Stones with a couple of goals, matching his output for Manchester City.

These two 24 year olds are leading a young team that doesn’t really know any better. I think the key will be playing with the same general looseness in what is now a super huge game.

Free Semi-Final Croatia vs. England World Cup Prediction:

Per above I think that England is a public team and that is influencing the markets. They have gotten to this point a little too soon and thus there is going to be an influx of money on them.

Juxtapose that to Croatia which probably has the smallest following of any of the four remaining nations and I think that might factor into the spread we are seeing for a game that maybe should be a pick’em. ”

I love the value on Croatia though I am a bit nervous given that their last two matches have gone to penalty kicks.

Partly because that is a dangerous way to win  (that doesn’t help you if you do a straight moneyline play) and also because it means they have been playing more than other clubs. I know they rest between games but that is still a lot of extra time on the pitch.

4* Free Semi-Final World Cup Betting Pick: Croatia to win

We are all guilty of recency bias which is what I think we are getting a little of here. England has looked really good in the Tournament so far but I think some of that has been competition as much as great play.

I would have gladly taken Croatia as the underdog if we had seen this match coming and I will be certainly do it now.

World Cup Semi-Final Free Score Prediction: Croatia 2 – England 1

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