Free NCAA Football Prediction: Badgers vs. Aggies Odds
Looking for Wisconsin Badgers vs. NMSU Aggies free picks? College football betting sees the Badgers taking on the Aggies on Saturday, September 17th at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 3 predictions like this Wisconsin-NMSU free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 3
(1-1) Wisconsin Badgers vs. NMSU Aggies (0-3)
Date: Saturday, September 17th, 2022
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Camp Randall Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Wisconsin -37 | NMSU +37 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Badgers N/A | Aggies N/A
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 46.5
Wisconsin needs a bounce back win after a poor loss at home against Washington State. Jerry Kill looks to keep improving a New Mexico State team that has become a laughingstock.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin certainly hopes they hit their bottom on the season. A home loss to Washington State wasn’t what prognosticators had on their preseason W-L predictions, but as the saying goes, that’s why you play the games.
The culprit in their loss was what it usually is — an anemic offense led by Graham Mertz. Mertz threw an interception on the Washington State 9 that proved disastrous. Simply put, Wisconsin can’t be shut out in 3 of 4 quarters.
Braelon Allen led the rushing effort with 98 yards on 21 carries and Chez Mellusi was also worked in. The Badgers chewed plenty of clock and the fact that they lost a game where they had the time of possession advantage 38-22 and is strange in its own right.
Penalties worked to negate the 401-253 yardage advantage that Wisconsin posted; 11 penalties for 106 yards is not a formula for success.
The defense picked off Cameron Ward twice and outside of a 31 yard touchdown on a dump-off pass, played a pretty solid game. So far this season, the Badgers have managed to have the 12th best defensive success rate in the country. We’ll lean on that in this matchup.
NMSU Aggies
Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill stepped in this year to lead the Aggies and he has quite the task in front of him. New Mexico State was in the bottom 5 programs of college football last season. It will be a tough climb up that hill back into bowl relevance. But, he’s done this before.
The Aggies rotate QB’s Diego Pavia and Freshman Gavin Frakes. You’ve seen me say it before but, if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. The two have combined to have the nation’s worst offense by SP+
Pavia is the best ball carrier, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, but Jamoni Jones is the starting RB by technicality. Lead wide receiver Star Thomas has just 19 receptions to begin the season.
LB Trevor Brohard leads the New Mexico State defense that has only ranked 99th in Havoc.**
The Aggies rank 126th in turnover margin. It’s really difficult to win football games when you don’t win the turnover battle.
**Havoc is defined as (TFL + PD + Forced Fumbles)/total plays
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Mexico State’s last 7 games
- New Mexico State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
- Wisconsin is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
- Wisconsin is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Free Week 3 NCAA Football Final Analysis:
Wisconsin needs to see a rebound in this game to settle down before conference play starts and they have the perfect opponent to do just that. This is a get right game for Graham Mertz.
Due to Wisconsin’s high run usage, they should chew up a fair amount of clock while dominating the game.
New Mexico State may not score at all against this Wisconsin defense. This is similar to my logic posed in the Michigan-Hawaii under. In a game where one team may not score at all, can Wisconsin shoulder the entire scoring load? I don’t think so.
Give me the under in this one.
4* Free Week 3 NCAA Betting Pick: Under 46.5
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