Free NCAAF Pick: Beavers vs. Broncos Odds
Looking for Oregon State Beavers vs. Boise State Broncos Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Beavers taking on the Broncos on 11/14 at Albertsons Stadium, in Boise, ID. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Beavers Broncos matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos
Beavers +13.5 | Broncos -13.5Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Beavers Broncos free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Beavers vs. Broncos Gameday
The Oregon State Beavers visit the No. 17 Boise State Broncos on Saturday, November 14, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 6 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, with USA Network carrying the Pac-12 matchup. Oregon State enters at 5-4 overall and 3-2 in conference play under JaMarcus Shephard. The Beavers are 2-2 on the road and have dropped two straight. They need a better defensive showing after last weekend.
Oregon State can move the football, but stopping Boise State on its blue turf is another matter.
The Beavers lost 42-21 at home to Texas State, surrendering 600 total yards. The Bobcats rushed for 386, exposing problems Oregon State must address before facing another dangerous ground attack.
Boise State is 8-1 overall and 5-0 in the Pac-12 under Spencer Danielson. The Broncos are No. 18 in the Coaches Poll and have won all four home games.
They’ve won eight straight since losing their opener at Oregon.
The Broncos defeated Colorado State 64-38 last Saturday, producing 669 yards of offense. Boise State has scored at least 30 points throughout its winning streak, although its defense hasn’t always kept pace.
These programs have split their last two meetings.
Boise State won 34-18 at home in 2024, while Oregon State claimed a 34-17 victory in Corvallis in 2022. The Beavers lead the all-time series 6-5, but the Broncos hold a 4-1 advantage in Boise.
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Oregon State Beavers vs. Boise State Broncos Odds & Previous Games
Boise State is favored at -521 on the moneyline, with Oregon State at +397. The Broncos are favored by 13.5 points, and the total is set at 65.5.
Oregon State has won three of its last five games.
The Beavers defeated Colorado State 56-26, San Diego State 66-14 and Washington State 48-30.
They followed those victories with losses to Fresno State, 38-22, and Texas State, leaving them searching for answers.
Boise State has won its last five contests.
The Broncos defeated Utah State 37-18, Fresno State 38-31, Washington State 31-10 and Texas State 46-45 before their latest victory. Their narrow escape against Texas State exposed defensive issues despite another productive offensive performance.
Both teams have plenty at stake in the Pac-12 race.
Boise State remains unbeaten in conference play and controls its position near the top of the standings. Oregon State needs a response after consecutive defeats, and facing the Broncos in Boise makes that assignment considerably tougher.
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Broncos Stats
Boise State has scored 351 points through nine games, averaging 39 per contest. The Broncos generate approximately 474 total yards per game and have established one of the nation’s most productive rushing attacks. Their offensive line has been central to that success.
Dylan Riley leads the nation with 1,241 rushing yards.
Riley has scored 11 rushing TDs and provides the Broncos with a dependable option between the tackles. His production has helped Boise State maintain possession and consistently move the chains.
The Broncos have converted more than half their third downs.
Rasean Jones leads the receiving corps with 661 yards and five TDs. Tight end Matt Wagner has also contributed, giving Boise State options when defenses commit extra players to stopping the run.
Defensively, Boise State has allowed 227 points.
The Broncos surrender approximately 377 yards per game, including 266 through the air. Their pass coverage has been vulnerable, and opponents have found ways to exploit it during recent games.
Turnovers haven’t completely solved those problems.
Boise State has seven interceptions and one fumble recovery. The defense needs more consistent execution rather than relying on its offense to erase mistakes.
Beavers Stats
Oregon State averages 38 points and 498 total yards per game. The Beavers have produced one of the nation’s most explosive passing attacks, although their recent defeats have exposed serious defensive problems. They also average nearly 26 first downs per contest.
The running game hasn’t matched the passing production.
Oregon State has gained approximately 1,160 rushing yards this season. That imbalance could become more significant if the Beavers are forced to adjust their offensive approach.
A.J. Newberry leads the rushing attack with 506 yards.
Newberry has scored four rushing TDs. Jesse Legree leads the nation with 1,209 receiving yards and has 14 TD catches, giving Oregon State a dangerous downfield target.
The Beavers have explosive talent, but their defense can’t keep asking the offense to rescue every Saturday.
Oregon State has allowed 242 points this season.
The Beavers have recorded eight interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Defensive lineman Takari Hickle leads the Pac-12 with 12.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
First-down production has been a strength.
Oregon State has recorded 233 first downs, reflecting its ability to sustain possessions. Maintaining that production against Boise State will require sharper execution than the Beavers displayed in their recent defeats.
Beavers vs. Broncos QB Matchup
Maddux Madsen remains Boise State’s established starting quarterback when healthy. He is questionable with a knee injury after missing the Colorado State game.
Madsen has thrown for 1,681 yards, 15 TDs and one interception.
He has completed 67% of his passes, providing efficiency alongside Boise State’s productive running game. Danielson has made clear that Madsen retains the starting job when available.
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Max Cutforth is prepared to start if Madsen cannot play. Cutforth threw for 317 yards and four TDs against Colorado State. He also helped lead the comeback against Texas State, giving Boise State a capable alternative.
Oregon State faces a more serious quarterback concern. Braden Atkinson leads the nation with 3,169 passing yards, 25 TDs and three interceptions. He injured his throwing hand against Texas State and is listed as doubtful for Saturday.
Maalik Murphy is the likely replacement if Atkinson cannot play. Murphy has starting experience from previous seasons, but taking over against a ranked opponent in Boise would present a difficult assignment.
Oregon State Beavers vs. Boise State Broncos bottom line: Boise State has the stronger rushing attack and home-field advantage, while Oregon State’s quarterback uncertainty could change the balance of this matchup.
Oregon State Beavers vs. Boise State Broncos Football Betting Trends
- Oregon State has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 away games this season.
- Also, the Beavers have hit the over in 3 of their last 4 games following a loss.
- Oregon State’s games have gone over the total in 7 of their last 9 games this season.
- Boise State has won 28 of their last 30 games as a favorite.
- Additionally, the Broncos have won 22 of their last 23 home games.
- Boise State’s games have gone over the total in all 4 of their home games this season.
Beavers Broncos Free Pick: Under 65.5
Here is my Beavers Broncos free pick: I’m betting Under 65.5. This number demands plenty of scoring, and Oregon State could be missing the quarterback who makes its passing attack so dangerous.
Boise State can put points on the board, but I don’t need the Broncos to slow down completely. I need them to establish control, sustain drives and avoid turning every possession into a sprint.
Sixty-six points is a hefty demand when one offense may be changing quarterbacks on the road.
The concern is Boise State’s defense, which has allowed opponents to hang around in games that should have been comfortable. Still, Oregon State could have trouble taking full advantage if its passing rhythm suffers.
A couple of quick touchdowns could make this uncomfortable. But I’m expecting Boise State to lean on its running game once it establishes a lead, forcing the Beavers to execute rather than simply trade big plays.
I’m not betting on a defensive masterpiece. I’m betting the scoring requirement is too steep for the circumstances, and I’ll take Under 65.5.
Today’s Week 11 NCAAF Free Pick
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Boise State Broncos on X
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— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) November 8, 2026
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