Free NCAA Football Prediction: Miners vs. Bulldogs Odds
Looking for UTEP Miners vs. Fresno State Bulldogs free picks? College football betting sees the Miners taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday December 18th, 2021, at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 5 predictions like this Miners Bulldogs free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: New Mexico Bowl
UTEP Miners (7-5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3)
Date: Saturday, December 18th, 2021
Time: 2:15 pm EST
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque NM
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Fresno State -11.5
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: UTEP +350 / Fresno State -450
NCAA Betting Total Odds: 51
It’s Conference USA against the Mountain West when UTEP meets Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque. The first thing that sticks out about this game is the total being just 51, because these are two teams that can move the ball at will through the air.
Even with all the uncertainty of these earlier bowl games where it seems like things could go either way, oddsmakers still like the Bulldogs with a pretty easy go of it as they are -11.5 favorites. That just seems like way too many points at first glance.
UTEP Miners
Overall the UTEP passing stats don’t look great as they throw for just 248.3 ypg which is 52nd in the country. Individually though, WR Jacob Cowing is virtually unguardable as he has amassed 67 catches for 1,330 yards this season.
That yardage total is the 6th most in the country, but wasn’t quite enough to get the 5’11”, 170-pounder on the Biletnikoff Finalists list. either way, Cowey has three games of 160+ receiving yards in his last six, and his presence alone makes the +11.5 look like a lofty number.
Obviously an elite receiver has to have somebody throwing him the football, and UTEP features sophomore Gavin Hardison at the helm of the offense. He’s had 16 TD to 12 INT this season, and completes just 56% of his passes so you wonder if Hardison is a one read QB – find Cowey and force it to him.
Fresno State Bulldogs
For as many yards as the Miners could potentially put up through the air to Cowey, Fresno State likely isn’t worried. That’s for two reasons, the first of which is that their defense is a top 32 total yard defense in the country (342.6) that gives up just 20.3 ppg (21st).
The other reason why there is no concern about a potential offensive outburst from UTEP is because Fresno State is more than capable of matching them blow for blow in the passing game. Bulldogs QB Jake Haener has thrown for 3,810 yards this season which is 9th most in the country.
Fresno State will have not played in three weeks by the time the Mexico Bowl kicks off, so Jeff Tedford hopes the time off hasn’t let his star QB cool down. Haener completed over 75% of his passes in the last two games of the regular season with 7 TDs and 0 INT.
Haenert has thrown for at least 275 yards in each of the last four games to close out the season, but UTEP allowed just 203.4 ypg through the air this year.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Miners are 9-21 ATS last 30 nonconference games
- Miners are 7-18-1 ATS last 19 vs team with winning record
- Miners are 0-4 ATS last 4 Bowl games
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS last 4 nonconference games
- Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS last 8 bowl games
- Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS last 9 neutral site games
Free New Mexico Bowl NCAA Football Pick
This game has the biggest spread of any bowl game outside of when Cincinnati squares off against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl. Is it that big of a mismatch for Fresno State? They have a great passing attack behind Tedford and Haena
4* Free New Mexico Bowl NCAA Betting Pick: Fresno State -11.5 points
Obviously there’s something oddsmakers have to see to set this line where it is, because the automatic play would be to take the points in a neutral site game when it opened at nearly 13.5. Maybe Fresno State’s passing attack is that good.
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