Free NCAAF Pick: Aggies vs. Commodores Odds
Looking for Utah State Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Aggies taking on the Commodores on 9/27 at FirstBank Stadium, in Vanderbilt. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Aggies Commodores free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Utah State Aggies vs Vanderbilt Commodores
(3-1) Utah State Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0)
Date: Sep 27, 2025
Time: 12:45 PM ET
Venue: FirstBank Stadium in Vanderbilt, TN
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Aggies +1006 | Commodores -2014 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Aggies +22.5 | Commodores -22.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 59.5
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Aggies vs. Commodores Gameday
Week 5 of the 2025 Regular Season is set to feature the Utah State Aggies against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The game will be played at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, TN, with an outdoor field setting. Fans can catch the action on SECN at 12:45 PM on Saturday, September 27, 2025.
Next, the Utah State Aggies come into this game with a 3-1 record. They have been strong at home, but on the road, they are 0-1. They are currently unranked but hold a two-game win streak.
On the other side, the Vanderbilt Commodores boast a perfect 4-0 record. They are ranked #18 in the AP Poll and #20 in the Coaches Poll. Vanderbilt has shown consistency both at home and on the road, maintaining a four-game win streak.
Finally, this game marks a significant test for Utah State, given their struggles on the road. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt will aim to extend their winning streak.
Both teams have shown strength in recent games, making this an exciting matchup in Nashville.
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It’s Week 5, Utah State Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores, hopefully we get a great matchup.
Utah State Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Odds & Last 5
The betting odds for this game show Vanderbilt as a heavy favorite. The Commodores have a moneyline of -2057, while Utah State is listed at +1056. With a spread of 22.5 points, Vanderbilt is expected to dominate.
Looking back, Utah State’s recent games have been a mix of highs and lows. They enjoyed a strong win at home against McNeese State with a 48-7 score but struggled on the road against Texas A&M, losing 44-22. Their home form has been solid, but road games tell a different story.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has been impressive throughout the season. They crushed Georgia State 70-21 in their last outing and have not lost a game yet. Their ability to perform well both at home and away makes them a tough opponent for Utah State.
Commodores Stats
To start, Vanderbilt’s offense is on a roll this season. They have scored 190 points, ranking 6th overall. Their rushing game is strong too, with 900 yards, placing them 16th.
Next, let’s look at their defense. They have allowed only 51 points, ranking 27th. Impressively, they are ranked 1st in fumbles recovered with five.
In recent games, Vanderbilt has been dominant. They won against Georgia State with a score of 70-21, showcasing their ability to control the game. They also defeated South Carolina and Virginia Tech by wide margins.
Finally, key players are making an impact. Diego Pavia leads with 890 passing yards and 8 touchdowns. Sedrick Alexander has rushed for 210 yards and scored 4 rushing touchdowns, leading the team in both categories.
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Aggies Stats
Utah State Aggies have been solid on offense this season. They rank 20th in points scored with 147. They have also managed 985 passing yards, placing them 44th in that category.
On the defensive side, the Aggies have shown strength with 10 sacks, ranking 8th. They have also snagged 4 interceptions, putting them at 5th. However, they have allowed 97 points, which ranks them 67th in that area.
Recently, Utah State has been on a roll with three wins in their last four games. Their most recent victory was a commanding 48-7 win over McNeese State. In that game, they gained 293 passing yards and 337 rushing yards.
Key players like Bryson Barnes lead the charge with 982 passing yards and 8 touchdowns. Miles Davis has contributed 310 rushing yards. However, injuries could be a concern, with several players listed as day-to-day or out for the season.
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Aggies vs. Commodores QB Matchup
Diego Pavia leads the charge for Vanderbilt with impressive stats. In four games, he has thrown for 890 yards, ranking 42nd nationally, but first on the team. He also has eight passing touchdowns, placing him 25th in the league, and two interceptions, which is 116th nationally.
On the other hand, Blaze Berlowitz, also from Vanderbilt, has had a quieter season. He has played four games, accumulating just 76 passing yards, which ranks him 276th nationally.
With only one touchdown and zero interceptions, his impact on the field has been limited.
For Utah State, Bryson Barnes stands out with his performance. Over four games, he has amassed 982 passing yards, placing him 30th in the league, and he has thrown eight touchdowns, the same as Pavia.
His single interception ranks him first in the league, showing his efficiency in protecting the ball.
Meanwhile, Anthony Garcia has seen limited action for Utah State. In four games, he has managed only three passing yards, ranking 480th nationally.
Despite this, he has one touchdown and no interceptions, indicating potential when given opportunities.
Utah State Aggies vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Football Betting Trends
- Utah State has a perfect 9-0 record for the over/under as an underdog in their last 9 games.
- Additionally, the Aggies are 4-0 against the spread as an underdog in their last 4 games.
- Utah State is 4-0 against the spread after a win in their last 4 games.
- The Commodores have a 9-2 record straight up as a favorite in their last 11 games.
- Also, Vanderbilt is 3-0 against the spread after a win in their last 3 games.
- Vanderbilt has gone over the total in 9 of their last 11 games as a favorite.
Aggies vs Commodores Prediction: Utah State +22.5
Utah State has been a bettor’s friend when catching points, going 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as an underdog. Even more telling, the Aggies are 9-0 to the over in that same role, which shows they consistently find ways to compete and put up points against stronger teams.
Vanderbilt comes in with momentum of their own, but Utah State’s ATS record after wins is just as impressive. The Aggies are 4-0 against the number following a victory, a trend that highlights their ability to stay consistent from week to week.
Despite Vanderbilt’s recent success as favorites, Utah State’s proven track record against the spread makes them a dangerous underdog to fade.
Additionally, a +22.5 spread gives plenty of cushion, especially against a Utah State squad that thrives in this spot. Their ability to hang around, even when outmatched on paper, has been a hallmark of their recent betting profile.
Given these strong trends and the Aggies’ knack for covering large numbers, the smart money points to Utah State +22.5.
They have the consistency and fight to keep this one closer than oddsmakers expect.
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
Didn’t catch the whole drone show? We’ve got you covered ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/xKotxa045h
— #18 Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) September 23, 2025
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